Impact of Brazil’s May-25 HPAI Outbreak on Global Poultry Trade and Domestic Market Dynamics

On May 15, 2025, Brazil confirmed its first outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on a commercial breeding farm in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul, housing 17,025 birds. This marked a turning point as previous detections since the virus entered Brazil in May-23 had been limited to wild and migratory birds, subsistence farming, and marine animals. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa), so far there are 172 confirmed cases of HPAI, 167 in the wild, four in backyard, and one in poultry. In response to the commercial farm outbreak, Brazilian authorities set up a 3-kilometer (km) protection zone and a 10-km surveillance zone, with inspections across all poultry farms within the restricted area.

Global Import Bans Shake Brazil’s Chicken Exports Amid May-25 HPAI Outbreak

The official confirmation of the HPAI outbreak prompted several countries to suspend chicken imports from Brazil. China, Brazil’s largest poultry export market, temporarily halted imports for 60 days in line with the bilateral export protocol. Several other countries, including the European Union (EU), Mexico, Iraq, South Korea, Chile, the Philippines, South Africa, Peru, Albania, Canada, Dominican Republic, Uruguay, Malaysia, Argentina, East Timor, Morocco, India, Sri Lanka, North Macedonia and Pakistan, imposed broader national bans. In contrast, some trading partners opted for regional restrictions, limiting bans to affected areas. For instance, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Kingdom (UK), Angola, Turkey, Bahrain, Cuba, Montenegro, Namibia, Kazakhstan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tajikistan and Ukraine restricted imports specifically from Rio Grande do Sul State. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Japan, Qatar, and Jordan suspended imports from Montenegro municipality. These varied responses highlight the differing trade protocols and risk management strategies among Brazil’s poultry trading partners.

The temporary suspension of chicken imports from Brazil in response to the HPAI outbreak significantly impacted May-25 shipments. According to data from Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), fresh chicken exports totaled 363.1 thousand metric tons (mt) in May-25, marking a 17.60% month-on-month (MoM) decline and falling below the 400-thousand mt threshold for the first time since Aug-24. The export value also dropped by 19.02% MoM to USD 654.7 million, the lowest since Mar-24. The average price per mt fell by 1.75% MoM to USD 1,802.90. Despite this setback, Brazil's year-to-date (YTD) performance remained positive, with total shipments reaching 2.09 million metric tons (mmt) valued at USD 9.03 billion. This reflects a 3.98% year-on-year (YoY) increase in volume and a 3.56% YoY rise in value.

Figure 1. Brazil’s Chicken Export Trend from 2022 to 2025

According to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), Brazil’s chicken meat exports, including fresh and processed products, totaled 393.4 thousand mt in May-25, valued at USD 654.7 million. This reflects MoM declines of 17.34% in volume and 27.75% in value, largely attributed to import suspensions following the HPAI outbreak. China, among the markets contributing most to the downturn, saw a sharp 31.02% MoM drop to 35.8 thousand mt. South Africa reduced its imports by 3.77% MoM to 25.5 thousand mt, the EU by 7.46% MoM to 24.8 thousand mt, and Mexico recorded a 7.78% MoM decline to 16.6 thousand mt.

Despite the negative impact of the HPAI outbreak, Brazil’s poultry industry has demonstrated resilience, underpinned by robust biosecurity systems and a well-diversified export market. While around 20 countries imposed temporary bans on a national level, approximately 128 markets remained open, allowing for the redirection of shipments. The most critical case is China, Brazil’s largest poultry importer, where efforts are underway to negotiate regionalized restrictions, limiting suspensions to affected areas rather than imposing nationwide bans. Brazil has already initiated similar negotiations with other partners like the EU, South Korea, and South Africa, and is working to gain broader international recognition of its biosecurity protocols. Notably, the outbreak occurred just as China had begun expanding its imports of Brazilian poultry products to include chicken offal (heart, liver, gizzard), duck meat, and turkey meat. This suggests that once Brazil regains HPAI-free status, its poultry exports to China could diversify and grow further.

Brazil’s Chicken Export Halt Creates Domestic Surplus and Protein Price Shifts

Domestically, the suspension of poultry exports by several countries is expected to create a surplus of chicken in Brazil’s market. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), around 60% of the country's chicken meat production comes from the South region, mainly Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul, which cumulatively account for 78% of Brazil’s poultry exports. Canal Rural, one of Brazil’s television networks specializing in agribusiness, reports that to absorb the oversupply caused by the 60-day embargo, each Brazilian would need to consume an additional 5 kilograms (kg) of chicken, a challenging scenario given that chicken is already the most consumed and affordable animal protein in the country. As a result, the excess supply is likely to exert downward pressure on prices for chicken, alongside alternative proteins like pork and beef, as consumers opt for the more cost-effective option.

Global Poultry Prices React to Brazil’s HPAI Outbreak and Export Disruptions

The confirmation of HPAI in Brazil had ripple effects beyond its borders, impacting global meat trade. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global meat price index rose to 124.60 points in May-25, a 1.28% MoM increase. Although the global poultry price index declined by 0.79% MoM to 116.17 points, this drop was outweighed by price increases for pork (+2.32% MoM), beef (+0.96% MoM), and lamb (+8.28% MoM). The decline in poultry prices is largely attributed to Brazil, where the HPAI outbreak triggered import bans from major buyers, resulting in excess domestic supply and downward price pressure. This highlights Brazil’s critical role in the global poultry market, as the world’s largest exporter with a 35% market share, having shipped 5.29 mmt worth USD 9.93 billion in 2024.

Figure 2. HPAI Outbreak in Brazil Pressures Global Poultry Price Index Downwards in May-25

Looking ahead, Brazil hopes to regain its HPAI-free status in the coming weeks, provided no new cases emerge in commercial farms. This would pave the way for a gradual return to the global chicken market, with some countries already easing restrictions. For example, Jordan has limited its ban to a 10-km radius around the outbreak, while Kuwait has confined it to the state of Rio Grande do Sul. However, if the outbreak spreads and new cases emerge, Brazil’s efforts to restore its HPAI-free status could face delays, resulting in prolonged trade restrictions and heightened challenges for the poultry industry. Despite this risk, Brazil continues to enforce heightened health surveillance measures to support recovery efforts. Nevertheless, the impact of the outbreak is expected to persist in the short term, particularly affecting exports and domestic market dynamics.