US Pistachio Exports Surge, Boosted by Poor Exports from Iran

Record Exports at the end of Q3

In the last five months, the United States has exported a staggering 289 million pounds of pistachios (measured in-shell), with five consecutive monthly records. This has been a remarkable recovery, considering the unfavorable start to the marketing year (MY). There is now a strong possibility that the total exports for this MY will surpass the previous record set in 2018/19, which stood at 579 million pounds. Based on historical export trends, it is estimated that cumulative exports could reach an impressive 623 million pounds.

Source: Administrative Committee for Pistachios

Change in Export Destinations

There has been a notable change in export destinations during the 2022/23 period. US exports to the Middle East soared to 110 million lbs at the end of the Q3 of 2022/23, much higher than the 61 million lbs exported over the same period in 2021/22, and the five-year average of 47 million lbs. Similarly, exports to Asia also witnessed a significant increase, reaching 215 million pounds compared to the five-year average of 177 million pounds. These surges in exports to Asia and the Middle East can be attributed to a corresponding decrease in exports from Iran to these destinations.

Source: ACP

US Exports Helped by Expensive Iranian Pistachios

The export market for Iranian pistachios has been severely affected as they have become uncompetitive in terms of pricing. This can be attributed to price surges that occurred in early 2023, primarily due to uncertainties in production for the 2023/24 season and water shortages. As a result of these high prices, Iran's pistachio exports have been significantly impacted, with only 42,927 metric tons (mt) exported in the first eight months of the 2022/23 marketing year (MY). This falls far below the five-year average of 96,684 mt.

The high price and low exports from Iran have increased the demand for US pistachios in markets traditionally served by Iran. While prices in Iran remain stubbornly high, they are bound to return to export parity, which could increase demand for Iranian pistachios and potentially slow down the rapid rate of US exports.

* Iran follows the Persian calendar and the MY starts on 23 September

Source: ACP, Iran Pistachio Association

Lower than Anticipated Ending Stocks, but a Record Crop on the Way

The strong export performance over the last five months is expected to significantly impact the ending stocks of pistachios. With only three months remaining in the marketing year (MY), it is possible that exports could surpass 620 million lbs and that ending stocks could drop to only 186 million pounds, which is considerably lower than the initial expectations at the beginning of the season. While the US has experienced a notable reduction in the oversupply of pistachios, the upcoming 2023/24 MY is anticipated to yield a record crop. 2023/24 is an on-year in the bi-annual production cycle of pistachios. Based on five-year average yields (2,650 lbs/acre), the crop could easily reach 1.15 billion lbs and based on yields in the last five on-years (3,170 lbs/acre), the crop could top 1.33 billion lbs. However, it is still too early to make any accurate estimates as nut clusters have only recently started forming on Californian pistachio trees. In the end, it would mean that the US will have a huge stockpile of pistachios again when the 2023/24 harvest starts in September. Prices could remain at current levels, which are comparatively low, in anticipation of the 2023/24 crop.

Source: Tridge, ACP.