Ivory Coast’s Mid-Crop Cocoa Output Expected to Plummet Amid Severe Dry Spell

Ivory Coast’s mid-crop cocoa output is projected to decline by around 40% this season due to an unusually prolonged dry spell and inconsistent rainfall in key cocoa-growing regions, according to exporters and pod counters. Farmers have reported that rainfall has been scattered and irregular, raising concerns about the development of cocoa pods. With the mid-crop season running from April 1 to September 30, industry stakeholders are increasingly worried about reduced yields and lower bean quality.

While farmers in some regions noted that recent moisture levels were just enough to support early pod development, they also emphasized that rising temperatures were putting trees under stress. Without substantial rainfall in the coming weeks, young cocoa pods could be at risk of falling prematurely, further diminishing the mid-crop harvest. The country is currently in its dry season, which runs from November to March, a period traditionally marked by low precipitation. However, this year’s dry conditions have been exceptionally intense, making it difficult for cocoa trees to recover.

The mid-crop marketing season is officially set to open in early Apr-25, but most farmers and traders expect little cocoa to be available for harvest at that time. Delayed pod formation means that significant bean volumes may not reach ports until at least Jun-25. Exporters based in San Pedro and Abidjan reported that cocoa flowers, which require 22 weeks to mature into pods, are only now beginning to appear in small numbers—far later than usual.

Last season, Ivory Coast harvested 500,000 tons of cocoa, while the country has averaged around 550,000 tons per year over the past decade, according to data from the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC). However, this season’s prolonged drought could push production well below these levels. The reduction in mid-crop supply comes at a time when the global cocoa market is already under pressure due to similar production struggles in Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer.

Impact on the Global Chocolate and Confectionery Industry

The expected shortfall in Ivory Coast’s mid-crop will have significant ramifications for the global chocolate and confectionery industry, which is already grappling with supply constraints and record-high cocoa prices. Ivory Coast and Ghana together account for more than 60% of the world’s cocoa supply, meaning that any production setbacks in these countries can lead to major price fluctuations in the global market. According to Tridge’s Mar-25 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) cocoa prices averaged 9,783 metric tons (mt) in Feb-25, marking a 73.5% year-on-year (YoY) increase from USD 5,640/mt in Feb-24.

Figure 1. ICCO Cocoa Prices

Chocolate manufacturers are already facing rising costs, with cocoa futures remaining near historic highs after a 73.5% YoY increase. Major confectionery companies such as Hershey, Mars, Mondelēz, and Nestlé may be forced to raise prices further, adjust product sizes, or reformulate recipes to manage input costs. In 2024, several chocolate brands reduced the size of their products—a phenomenon known as “shrinkflation”—to offset rising ingredient expenses. This trend is likely to continue if cocoa supplies remain tight.

The supply crunch is also expected to impact smaller chocolate producers and artisan brands, many of whom lack the financial flexibility to absorb sharp price increases. Some may shift toward alternative ingredients or explore cocoa-free chocolate substitutes. Meanwhile, retailers could see lower profit margins as wholesale chocolate prices continue to rise, potentially leading to reduced consumer demand.

Additionally, cocoa-processing industries in Europe and North America, which rely on steady bean imports from West Africa, could face supply chain disruptions. Grinding facilities, which convert raw cocoa into butter and powder for use in chocolate production, may struggle to secure adequate volumes, leading to further bottlenecks in the market.

In response, industry players are closely monitoring weather conditions in West Africa and assessing alternative sourcing strategies, including increased reliance on cocoa from Latin America or Indonesia. However, these regions lack the scale to compensate for a significant drop in West African production, meaning global supply constraints are likely to persist.

Market Outlook

Given the production challenges in Ivory Coast, cocoa prices are expected to remain elevated in the coming months, with continued volatility in the commodity market. The delayed mid-crop harvest means that global cocoa inventories will remain tight through mid-2025, sustaining high costs for chocolate manufacturers and traders.

Short-term price spikes could occur if rainfall levels do not improve by late Apr-25, further exacerbating the supply deficit. On the other hand, if Ivory Coast experiences an unexpected increase in precipitation, it could help stabilize production, although recovery would still take several months.

Beyond seasonal weather concerns, the cocoa industry continues to face structural challenges, including aging trees, soil degradation, and the impact of climate change. In response, both governments and multinational chocolate companies are investing in sustainability initiatives aimed at improving yields and reducing reliance on a few key producing countries. However, these efforts will take years to bear fruit.

For now, global cocoa buyers, chocolate manufacturers, and confectionery brands should brace for ongoing price pressures and potential supply chain disruptions. Retailers may need to adjust pricing strategies, while consumers could see continued increases in the cost of chocolate products throughout 2025.