Garlic Prices in Indonesia Are Expected to Drop after Government Interventions

The wholesale price of garlic in Indonesia has been increasing in the previous period, reaching USD 3/kg in W3 of Jun-23, according to Tridge price data. In response to the rising prices of garlic, the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kemendag) has issued an Import Approval Letter (SPI) for 300,000 mt of garlic from China. China is the sole garlic supplier to the Indonesian market, and the expected quantities arriving should reduce the price in the following months.

Source: TradeMap and Tridge

According to the Jan-23 to Dec-23 National Food Balance Prognosis, Indonesia’s annual garlic demand is approximately 652 thousand mt, while the domestic garlic production levitates around 81 thousand mt. Indonesian garlic import volume from China declined by 6.10% YoY, down to 566,175 mt in 2022. Still, despite the deficit in garlic quantities in Indonesia, the import quota until May-23 was just 176,000 mt, with 73% of the garlic kg already exceeded. Garlic stocks have been reduced and prices have risen due to postponed purchases and commodity shipments in Indonesia. Traders and other associations in the country urged the government to issue additional permits for increased import quotas and a recent decision has been made for an additional 300,000 mt of garlic from China. However, up until writing, it is still being determined when the first volume will arrive from China due to the slow regulation implementation.

Source: Tridge

In W3 of Jun-23, the wholesale price of fresh garlic reached USD 3/kg, a 10.33% WoW climb, and compared to the same period last year, price is up 11.11% YoY. For 2022 the record price was USD 2.77/kg, achieved in W1 of Jun-22.

Tridge predicts that prices will fall in the coming months based on historical data and the improved garlic supply from China. The wholesale price of garlic in Indonesia is also highly related to the price movements in China. Prices in China are already declining, driven by the arrival of new seasonal garlic.