OPINIO
Trade4go
Mar 21st, 2025
Original content
China's fresh grape industry has experienced substantial growth in production and exports, driven by advancements in agricultural technology, improved quality, and strong demand from international markets. According to the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) data, China's grape exports reached 593,600 metric tons (mt) in 2024. This is equivalent to an export value of USD 0.91 billion (CNY 6.60 billion), marking a 22.8% increase in volume and a 13.73% rise in value compared to 2023. However, the export unit price decreased by 8% year-on-year (YoY) to CNY 11.12 per kilogram (kg), reflecting competitive pricing strategies to maintain market share.
China's fresh table grape production is projected to reach 14.2 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2024/25 season, a 5% YoY increase from the 13.5 mmt recorded in 2023/24. This growth is attributed to higher yields achieved through advanced agricultural technologies, such as greenhouse cultivation and modern storage methods, which have enhanced grape flavor, appearance, and shelf life. Despite a slight decline in the planting area, from 728,000 hectares (ha) in 2023/24 to 725,000 ha in 2024/25, productivity improvements have offset this reduction. Approximately 85% of locally grown grapes are consumed fresh, while the remaining 15% are processed into products like wine and raisins.
China's grape industry has also developed new varieties of crisp, seedless, and sweet grapes to meet consumer preferences. Popular varieties like Shine Muscat and Nina Queen have gained traction, with the latter offering superior taste and aroma. However, these varieties require more sophisticated cultivation techniques, posing challenges for farmers. In particular, Shine Muscat has seen a rapid increase in output, which has contributed to a decline in its market price.
China's grape exports are expected to reach 620,000 mt in the 2024/25 season, up 4.44% YoY from 593,600 mt in the 2023/24 season. Southeast Asia remains the primary export destination, with Vietnam and Thailand leading in import volumes due to their large populations and underdeveloped domestic grape industries. Vietnam imported 151,500 mt in 2024, valued at CNY 1.846 billion, while Thailand imported 128,100 mt, worth CNY 1.406 billion. Shorter shipping times and improved grape quality have bolstered China's competitiveness in these markets.
Hong Kong is prominent as a unique export destination, importing only 12,900 mt in 2024 at a premium price of CNY 16.56/kg, reflecting the high quality of grapes demanded by local consumers. Additionally, exports to Kyrgyzstan and Russia are growing rapidly, diversifying China's export portfolio.
China's grape imports have declined significantly mostly due to improved domestic production and lower domestic prices, falling by over 50% since the 2022/23 season. Imports are projected to drop further to 85,000 mt in 2024/25, down from 118,500 mt in 2023/24.
Nevertheless, Australia, Peru and Chile–which favor zero tariffs on grape exports to China– will continue to be China’s main suppliers, especially during China’s off-season between January and May.
Figure 1. Import Value of Fresh Grapes in China and Main Suppliers 2023
Source: Tridge Eye
Declining imports can be attributed to lower domestic prices, particularly for Shine Muscat grapes, and an extended supply season enabled by advanced storage technologies. On the other hand, according to Tridge Eye, a new tool developed to provide real-time data, insights, and analysis on global trade, import prices of fresh grapes in China have been on a steady incline since Nov-24, reaching a maximum price of USD 6.33/kg in Jan-25.
Figure 2. Import prices of Fresh Grape in China
Source: Tridge Eye
China's fresh grape industry is gaining ground due to increased production, enhanced quality, and strategic export growth. While domestic prices have declined, the industry's focus on innovation and market diversification has positioned China as a leading player in the global grape trade. With continued advancements in agricultural practices, the development of new grape varieties, and strengthened trade relations, China's grape exports are on the road for sustained growth in the coming years.
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