Global soybean scenario points to a low trajectory for 2025

For 2025, global soybean prices are expected to decline due to the largest American harvest on record, which will increase stocks by 37.4%. Despite initial planting delays, South American production is also expected to be significant, particularly in Brazil. However, the market could become volatile due to factors such as the US elections and China's purchases of US soybeans in anticipation of potential trade restrictions with the new administration. While these restrictions could favor Brazilian exports in the second half of the year, logistical challenges and a high dollar could negatively impact export premiums. It is also predicted that American producers may reduce soybean planting area in the 2025/26 harvest due to expected price drops.

When analyzing the global soybean scenario for 2025, price trends, both in the futures market and in the physical market in Brazil, indicate a predominantly negative trajectory. This is the projection by Safras & Mercado analyst and consultant Rafael Silveira. The American harvest is consolidating itself as the second largest in history, with approximately 121.7 million tons of soybeans, which results in final stocks 37.4% higher than the previous year, totaling approximately 12.79 million tons. Despite the increase in exports and crushing, stocks remain at a comfortable level, as noted by the analyst. In South America, the outlook also suggests significant production, favored by neutral weather conditions to date, especially in Brazil. Despite initial delays in planting, the pace has advanced significantly, overcoming not only delays in percentage terms, but reaching levels above the average of the last five harvests”, reports the consultant. The current conditions of Brazilian ...