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Global apple production in the 2024/25 season is projected to reach 83.9 million metric tons (mmt), reflecting a decrease of nearly 350 thousand metric tons (mt) compared to the 2023/24 season. This drop is mainly due to reduced harvests in the European Union (EU), the United States (US), Turkey, and Russia, with China's expected increase of 1.5 mmt, reaching 48 mmt, unable to offset the decline fully. China's growth stems from replacing older varieties with higher-yielding ones. The EU, the second-largest producer, will see a 1.1 mmt reduction to 11 million, mainly due to frost damage in Poland, which is expected to reduce yield. Meanwhile, US apple production is expected to remain below 5 mmt, though export volumes should remain stable despite domestic challenges.
South Africa's Tru-Cape Fruit Marketing, a leading fruit exporter specializing in apples and pears, is thrilled to resume apple exports to Thailand, re-entering a market it had lost for several years. Varieties like Fuji, Joya, and Royal Gala will benefit from this opportunity, with Pink Lady apples expected to follow soon. Over the past decade, South African apple exports have increased by 40%, with a significant focus on the Far East and Asia. While New Zealand apples have historically dominated the Thai market, South Africa plans to introduce them through a strategic market development campaign, aiming for long-term growth and consumer adoption in Thailand.
In 2024, South Korea's apple production surged by 16.6% year-on-year (YoY), reaching 460 thousand tons, up from 394 thousand tons in 2023. Despite a 2.5% decrease in the area of fruit trees, from 24.6 thousand hectares (ha) to 24 thousand ha, the production per 100 square meters (sqm) rose by 19.7%, from 1.5 thousand kilograms (kg) to 1.9 thousand kg. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) credited favorable weather conditions for the strong growth, noting the absence of low-temperature damage, typhoons, or hail during the flowering period and decreased disease and pest occurrences.
Ukraine's 2024 apple production faces significant challenges, including a weaker harvest and rising fresh fruit and processing market prices. The global apple market is highly competitive. Processors are competing with the budget segment, retailers are fighting to secure high-quality apples, and exporters are facing challenges to meet the growing demand. This season has proven especially difficult for Ukraine, with natural disasters affecting production more severely than even the first year of the war. As a result, apple prices have risen, creating a complex and challenging market environment for the country.
Ukraine’s apple exports declined during the 2024/2025 season, following the record export volumes of the previous season. This decline is due to a shortage of quality products. Experts forecast that some varieties, potentially from Poland, may be imported to meet demand. Despite market expansion, new apple fractions, and orchard modernization driving apple export growth for years, the current season is expected to end earlier than usual, with demand for key varieties like Royal Gala peaking quickly.
In W52, Italy's apple prices declined slightly by 1.72% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.71/kg, reflecting a 3.39% month-on-month (MoM) decrease and an 11.40% YoY drop due to continued high market availability from the tail end of the harvest season, which has kept supply levels elevated and exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, competition from other European apple producers has remained strong, further contributing to the price decline despite steady seasonal demand during the holiday period.
US apple prices remained steady in W52, with an increase of 6.14% YoY due to stronger demand for fresh apples earlier in the season and tighter supply conditions for premium varieties, driven by strong domestic consumption trends and limited international availability. However, prices dropped by 3.97% MoM due to ongoing harvests maintaining stable supply levels and efforts to manage inventory turnover, leading to a slight adjustment in pricing despite lower storage levels than the in 2023.
Chile's apple prices rose slightly by 0.49% WoW to USD 2.05/kg in W52, marking a 5.13% MoM increase due to continued stabilizing supply levels and reduced inventory pressure from processors and exporters, supporting the ongoing price recovery. However, prices dropped by 37.5% YoY due to the exceptionally high base prices in 2023, driven by supply shortages and heightened demand challenges. Current prices reflect more typical market conditions.
In South Africa, apple prices increased by 5.68% WoW to USD 0.93/kg in W52, with a 4.49% MoM increase due to stronger demand during the holiday season and a slight reduction in supply pressure as harvests began to taper off. Additionally, the resumption of exports to Thailand, particularly for varieties like Fuji, Joya, and Royal Gala, supported the market. However, prices dropped significantly by 29.01% YoY due to 2023’s higher base prices, which were driven by a smaller harvest, limited supply, and logistical challenges that impacted prices.
Apple prices in France fell by 2.36% WoW to USD 1.24/kg in W52, reflecting a 15.07% MoM decline and a 25.30% YoY decrease. This drop is due to continued high stock levels, which maintained downward pressure on prices. Additionally, competition from imported apples and the lingering effects of the earlier oversupply from Storm Caetano contributed to the price drop. The MoM decline is due to a seasonal slowdown in demand as the holiday season ended, further easing the pressure seen earlier. The YoY decrease reflects the elevated base prices from 2023, which were influenced by supply challenges that are no longer present.
Apple producers should diversify their sourcing strategies by exploring alternative suppliers to mitigate the impact of reduced harvests in key regions like the EU, the US, and Turkey. Additionally, expanding domestic apple production in areas with favorable conditions, like China, can help compensate for the decline in other countries. Producers in regions with stable yields should improve production efficiency through advanced technologies such as automated harvesters and precision agriculture. Strengthening export strategies and building strong relationships with international markets will also help stabilize supply chains amidst global fluctuations.
Apple producers should focus on incorporating higher-yielding varieties such as the Gala or Fuji apples, which have shown better adaptability to various climates and offer higher productivity than traditional varieties. Improving orchard management techniques, such as adopting precision agriculture tools to optimize irrigation and fertilization, can also enhance productivity. Pruning, pest management, and integrating cover crops for soil health can improve overall fruit quality and yield. Exploring alternative sourcing strategies, such as forming partnerships with growers from regions with favorable climates like China, can help stabilize supply during periods of reduced harvests. Strengthening market relationships and diversifying export destinations will ensure the stability of the global supply chain while investing in technologies that improve post-harvest handling and storage, which can extend the market availability of apples.
Sources: Tridge, Agropopular, Agrotimes, Eastfruit, Freshplaza, Mxfruit, Nongmin, Sinor, USDA
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