🍚 Vietnam is shipping more rice and earning less. Here are the numbers. Early 2026 trade data shows a pattern worth studying: Jan to Feb 2026 → Export volume: 1.3 million tonnes (+5% YoY) → Export value: $599.3M (-11.2% YoY) → Average price: $464.1/tonne (-15.4% YoY) Volume up 5%, value down 11.2%. That implies roughly $75M less revenue than a year earlier, despite shipping more rice. February alone: 640K tonnes exported, generating $289.4M. Where the rice is going → Philippines: 47.6% of total exports (value +17.6% in January) → China: exports up 5.8x year-on-year → Ghana: down 31% Nearly half of Vietnam's rice goes to one buyer. That's a big concentration risk, even with China's surge. Why prices fell → India's surplus supply pushed its export prices lower, with 5% broken parboiled at $348-353/tonne → India's rupee hit a record low, making its rice even cheaper → Vietnam's 5% broken rice was quoted at $360-365/tonne, unchanged week to week → Middle East tensions put pressure on global shipping routes The bigger picture Despite the squeeze, Vietnam still exported about $6.39B of rice between April 2025 and March 2026. That's ahead of India's $5.62B in the same period, even though India ships far more tonnage (USDA projects 25.0M MT for India vs 8.0M MT for Vietnam in 2026/27). The takeaway: Volume isn't the same as value. India wins on scale, while Vietnam has competed on variety, with fragrant, jasmine, glutinous and white rice. But when a larger rival floods the market with cheap supply, even a diversified exporter feels the price pressure. For anyone in agribusiness or commodities: watch pricing power, not just tonnage. What matters more to you in commodity trade, volume or margin? #Rice #AgriculturalTrade #Vietnam #Commodities #GlobalTrade #FoodSecurity