Global Food Price Surge Ahead of Ramadan

As the Islamic holy month of Ramadan approaches, food prices traditionally surge due to a sharp rise in demand for essential commodities. Households, retailers, and food service providers stock up on staple goods in preparation for iftar, the evening meal to break the fast, and suhoor, the pre-dawn meal. This heightened demand exerts upward pressure on prices, particularly for products such as edible oils, sugar, chickpeas, pulses, dates, meat, seafood, and onions. The impact is most pronounced in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, where the observance of Ramadan is widespread. However, due to the interconnected nature of global agricultural trade, these price fluctuations often extend beyond these regions, influencing international commodity markets.

Rising Demand and Price Surges Across Key Markets

In Morocco, food prices have seen a noticeable spike, driven by increased consumer demand in the lead-up to Ramadan. Fish, a staple in Moroccan iftar meals, has recorded one of the most significant price jumps. According to the High Commission for Planning (HCP), between Dec-24 and Jan-25, seafood prices rose by 6.0%, while vegetables, meat, fruits, and dairy products also saw increases ranging from 0.6% to 4.7%. This trend reflects the surge in household purchasing as families prepare for the month-long observance.

In Bangladesh, the pre-Ramadan rush has placed considerable strain on food markets, driving up prices for essential commodities. With an increase in demand for chickpeas, dates, and edible oils, prices in Dhaka’s wholesale and retail markets have surged. The price of sugar, a key ingredient in many traditional Ramadan dishes, has risen from USD 0.91 per kilogram (BDT 110/kg) to USD 1.19/kg (BDT 145/kg) over the past year. Meanwhile, onions—another staple in South Asian cooking—have seen prices jump from USD 0.29/kg (BDT 35/kg) in early 2024 to USD 0.66/kg (BDT 80/kg) in 2025. Primarily linked to the annual spike in demand, these price hikes have further burdened low- and middle-income households already grappling with food inflation.

Figure 1: Commodity Market in Bangladesh

While many countries face price hikes due to rising demand, others have taken proactive measures to stabilize food markets and ensure affordability during Ramadan. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), large-scale retailers and government interventions have sought to curb excessive price increases. A coalition of 644 supermarkets has implemented price reductions exceeding 50% on staple foods, with Lulu Hypermarket alone cutting prices by up to 65% on 5,500 products. These measures aim to maintain consumer affordability during Ramadan when household grocery expenditures typically rise. Additionally, the UAE has significantly increased food imports, with Dubai’s Al Aweer Fruits and Vegetables Market handling 15,000 metric tons (mt) of fresh produce daily, while Abu Dhabi’s traders manage 6,000 mt.

Figure 2: Lulu Hypermarket, UAE

In Tanzania, the government has also stepped in to ensure price stability. The Prime Minister has publicly urged traders to avoid price gouging, emphasizing the importance of community support during the fasting month. Ramadan is not only a time of fasting and reflection but also a period of communal gatherings and shared meals. The government’s appeal highlights the role of traders in maintaining fair pricing so that all families can observe the holy month without undue financial strain.

Government Regulations and Market Stabilization Efforts

To counteract the inflationary pressures caused by increased demand, several governments have implemented price controls and market interventions. In the UAE, authorities have enforced strict price regulations on nine essential food categories, including cooking oils, eggs, dairy, rice, sugar, poultry, legumes, bread, and wheat. Retailers are required to obtain government approval before raising prices on these goods.

In other regions, governments have expanded food stockpiling efforts to buffer against supply shortages, while some have adjusted trade policies to facilitate smoother import flows of key Ramadan commodities. These policy-driven measures aim to prevent speculative price hikes and ensure stable food supply throughout the holy month.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, global agricultural commodity markets are expected to remain volatile as Ramadan approaches, with supply chains feeling the strain of heightened consumer demand. The surge in purchasing ahead of the fasting month places additional stress on supply networks, and markets that rely heavily on food imports—such as those in the Middle East and parts of Africa—remain particularly vulnerable to external disruptions.

Several key factors will shape the market dynamics in the coming weeks. As Ramadan draws nearer, food demand will continue rising, particularly for high-consumption items like sugar, dates, pulses, and cooking oil. Retailers are expected to stockpile products, further driving up prices. Countries that depend on imported food, such as the UAE and Bangladesh, may face additional cost pressures due to currency depreciation and global commodity price shifts. The success of price controls and subsidy programs will play a crucial role in determining consumer affordability. If measures such as the UAE’s retail price reductions prove effective, they could mitigate the extent of price hikes in some regions. Traders anticipating price surges may engage in speculative stockpiling, temporarily reducing market availability and driving up prices further. Governments will need to monitor and regulate such practices to maintain stability.

Despite these challenges, countries that have preemptively ramped up food imports and implemented retail price stabilization measures may see greater price stability than those where market forces are left unchecked. However, in the long term, enhancing domestic agricultural production, strengthening supply chain infrastructure, and fostering international trade partnerships will be crucial in reducing vulnerability to seasonal price fluctuations.

While annual price increases ahead of Ramadan are a well-documented trend, the extent of their impact varies by region, driven largely by the interplay between domestic production capacity, government intervention, and global supply chain dynamics. For policymakers, retailers, and consumers alike, balancing affordability with supply security remains the key challenge in navigating this critical period of increased demand.