Falling US Mango Imports Keep Prices Under Pressure

Figure 1: United States Fresh Mango Import Volume 2019-2023

Source: Tridge

In 2023, overall United States (US) mango import volume dropped 2.94% year-on-year (YoY) from a record 607,232 metric tons (mt) to 589,336 mt in 2022. The declining trend is even more pronounced in Q1-24, with a 34.42% YoY drop to 88,937 mt. Mango imports have decreased for several reasons. Climatic adversities in crucial exporting countries, such as severe droughts in Mexico and cyclones in India, have resulted in lower harvests, while logistical obstacles continue to impact the seamless product flow. Additionally, COVID-19 effects are still felt in the form of labor shortages and port congestion, aggravating the situation.

Mexico is the number one supplier of fresh mangoes to the US, particularly the Tommy Atkins and Ataulfo/Honey types. Despite an 11% YoY rise in mango production thus far, Mexico has had difficulty achieving export projections in 2024. According to the National Mango Board (NMB), inbound quantities decreased by 15% YoY in week 13 compared to the same period in 2023.

The US' second supplier of fresh mangoes, Peru, suffered a significant setback during the 2023/24 campaign. During Q1-24, Peru shipped 21,759 mt of fresh mangoes, a 70.80% reduction over the previous year. The Kent mango variety in Peru faced the brunt of adverse weather conditions during pollination. This is especially important since 90% of the US's mango imports from Peru are Kent mangoes.

Other South American suppliers of fresh mangoes to the US, like Ecuador and Guatemala, experienced minor growth in Q1-24, which is still insufficient to offset the overall decline in 2023.

As a result, the law of supply and demand follows a predictable pattern. With fewer mangoes entering the US market, prices have been significantly impacted. According to the NMB, despite a recent 10.23% week-over-week (WoW) price decline in W20 to USD 5.88 per box, compared to the same period last year, prices of fresh mangoes in the US have skyrocketed 43.06% YoY from USD 4.11 per box in 2023.

The US mango market remains strained, as elevated prices highlight the challenges for traders. Nevertheless, Tridge anticipates the market's resilience in the forthcoming period. Despite reduced supply and escalated prices, import volumes are poised to rebound, fueled by the expected surge in mango production in Mexico and the recovery of Peru's volumes in the 2024/25 season.