Chilean 2023/24 Cherry Season: Positive Outlook and Market Dynamics

The 2023/24 season for Chilean cherries appears promising, buoyed by favorable climatic conditions and robust international demand. As one of the leading exporters of cherries in the Southern Hemisphere, Chile's agricultural sector is poised to capitalize on the growing global appetite for this fruit, which is prized for its quality and flavor. Chile exported 413,979 metric tons (mt) of cherries in the 2023/24 season, with China accounting for 91.1% of exports. This information comes from the Chilean Fruit Exporters Association Frutas de Chile, which coordinates production and export efforts to ensure a consistent supply to the Chinese market. A record-breaking yield of 851,000 mt is expected in the upcoming season as more trees come into production.

Chile's cherry production has been on an upward trajectory in recent years, with significant investments in technology and farming practices leading to higher yields and better-quality produce. Since 2000, Chilean farmers have been increasing the acreage under cherries from 3,200 hectares (ha) to 65,000 ha in 2023, focusing on rootstocks and planting systems, increasing the yield per tree and density of the orchards. The industry's commitment to sustainable and efficient production methods has increased output and enhanced the fruit's appeal in international markets.

Figure 1: Chile Cherry Export Volume 2019-2023

Source: Tridge, Trade Map

The positive outlook for the 2023/24 season is also a result of strategic market diversification. While China remains the largest importer of Chilean cherries, accounting for a substantial share of the exports, Chilean producers have been actively exploring new markets to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on a single market. This diversification strategy has increased exports to the United States (US), Europe, and other Asian countries, providing a buffer against market volatility. Despite the 6.40% YoY fall in the export volume of fresh cherries to 328,442 mt in 2023, recent information from General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC) shows increased volumes in the first months of 2024, and records are expected to bounce back to 2022 levels or exceed them. On the other hand, exports to the US surged 25.96% YoY in 2023 to 17,396 mt and are anticipated to increase in 2024 as well, driven by increased harvest volume.

Several factors influence market dynamics for the 2023/24 season. The ongoing global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a resurgence in consumer spending, which bodes well for luxury fruit items like cherries. Additionally, the timing of the Chilean cherry season, which coincides with the Chinese New Year, traditionally results in a spike in demand, providing a lucrative window for exports.

However, the industry must navigate challenges such as logistical bottlenecks, fluctuating shipping costs, and the ever-present threat of climate change, which can impact production cycles. Drought in the Panama Canal, which continues to impede transit, is forcing cargo ships to seek alternate, longer oceanic routes, increasing logistic costs and delaying shipping time.

Overall, Tridge’s expectations for the 2023/24 Chilean cherry season are set against a backdrop of optimism. The outlook for Chilean cherries in the upcoming season is highly positive, driven by favorable weather conditions, strong global demand, and strategic market diversification efforts. Despite logistical constraints and climate change, the Chilean cherry industry is well-positioned to capitalize on China's growing appetite for this fruit, ensuring a promising future.