Challenges and Outlook for the US Egg Industry in 2025

The United States (US) egg industry remains a vital component of the agricultural sector, with production trends reflecting both market demand and external challenges. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), total egg production declined by 1% to 108.52 billion eggs in 2024, with table eggs reaching 93.1 billion and hatching eggs falling slightly to 15.4 billion. However, the industry's value remained high, with the total value of all chickens rising 8% to USD 4.13 billion as of December 1, 2024, and the average value per bird increasing to USD 8.05.

Figure 1. Egg Production in the US

The US egg market has experienced notable shifts in consumption, production, and distribution over the past decades. Per capita egg consumption in the US has shown a general upward trend since 2010, reflecting sustained consumer demand. In 2024, per capita consumption reached 284.4 eggs, up 1.1% from 2023, which was 281.3 eggs. Compared to 2010, when consumption was 242.8 eggs, it has increased by 17.1% over 14 years. While consumption peaked at 293.4 eggs in 2019, it saw a decline in subsequent years due to market disruptions and supply chain challenges. However, the recent rebound suggests a recovery in consumer demand, despite production constraints. This growth highlights the continued role of eggs as a staple protein source in American diets.

Figure 2. US Per Capita Consumption of Eggs

Egg production is a significant contributor to the economy in several states, with the top five shell egg-producing states accounting for approximately 44% of all laying hens in the US. These states include Iowa, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The top ten states together account for over 65% of egg production. In recent years, there has also been a notable shift towards cage-free production. By the end of 2023, 38% of all hens were in cage-free systems, and this figure was expected to rise to 40% by the end of 2024. This transition is driven by commitments from retailers, food service providers, and food manufacturers to source cage-free eggs, reflecting growing consumer demand for more humane production practices.

Challenges in the Egg Industry

The US egg market faced significant challenges in 2024, primarily driven by the lingering effects of bird flu and fluctuating production levels. The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continued to impact the egg supply chain, leading to a reduction in the number of laying hens. This shortage of supply, coupled with rising feed costs, contributed to a sharp increase in egg prices. As of 2024, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the average price for a dozen eggs had risen to USD 3.17, representing a 13.42% increase from 2023, when prices were USD 2.80. By Jan-25, egg prices hit an all-time high of USD 4.95 per dozen, marking a further increase of 56.17% from 2024's price.

Figure 3. Average Egg Price (Grade A, Large, Per Dozen)

The ongoing bird flu outbreak, a major factor driving egg price increases, has had a severe impact on the US egg supply, with over 158 million birds slaughtered since the outbreak began. In Dec-24 alone, more than 18 million birds were killed, and another 23 million were culled in Jan-25, most of which were egg-laying hens. The virus spreads rapidly among birds, especially in the spring and fall during migratory seasons, as wild birds are key vectors. The culling process and the time needed to sanitize farms and raise new flocks mean that the effects on egg supply persist for months. This has contributed to sharp price hikes and ongoing shortages.

The shortage is compounded by inflationary pressures on farmers, who are facing higher feed, fuel, and labor costs. Moreover, the rise of cage-free egg laws in 10 states, including California and Massachusetts, has limited the supply of cage-free eggs, which are often more affected by outbreaks. The demand for eggs has also increased, especially with the rise of all-day breakfast restaurants. The USDA predicts that egg prices will remain elevated, with many stores such as Trader Joe's, Walmart, and Costco implementing purchase limits to control the available supply.

In addition to the impact on retail consumers, the high cost of eggs is also affecting industries reliant on eggs, like bakeries and food production, forcing them to raise prices or cut production. As a result of these disruptions, alternative solutions like egg rentals, where consumers can rent chickens to produce fresh eggs, have gained popularity, offering a sustainable and cost-effective solution for some households. However, the broader market remains constrained, and the price of eggs continues to impact the food supply chain, driving both consumer prices and retail policies.

2025 Outlook

The egg industry in 2025 is grappling with the aftermath of the ongoing HPAI crisis that has severely impacted egg-laying flocks across the US as it continues to decimate millions of hens, leading to a sharp decline in egg production. The number of egg-laying hens has dropped significantly, which has directly contributed to a persistent shortage of eggs. This shortage has pushed prices to record highs and created a volatile market where prices fluctuate month-to-month. The fluctuating supply, compounded by the challenges of restocking hens, is expected to keep prices elevated throughout the year.

In addition to the bird flu crisis, there are regulatory challenges facing the industry. Several states, including Arizona, California, and Washington, have laws in place banning conventional eggs in favor of cage-free alternatives. These regulations, designed to improve animal welfare, have further limited the availability of eggs in the country. This further limits the options for retailers who are already struggling to meet the demand, causing price hikes and potential shortages, especially in states with stricter laws.

As a result, shoppers may find it increasingly difficult to secure eggs, and prices may remain high as long as the bird flu crisis continues to impact production. Furthermore, with Easter approaching, seasonal demand spikes are expected to exacerbate the situation. While there are efforts to mitigate the crisis, such as the USDA’s USD 1 billion relief plan, the industry's recovery is slow, and it will likely take several more months before supply begins to stabilize. The plan compensates egg producers for losses due to bird flu, supports flock replenishment, and funds biosecurity measures. It aims to help smaller farms recover, though long-term support will be needed for full industry

There are broader economic factors at play. With the rising cost of eggs, many consumers are looking for alternatives, including backyard chickens and even illegal imports from Mexico. Meanwhile, the current administration's government response to the egg industry challenges includes investigating potential price-gouging by major producers and considering regulatory actions to address supply chain issues. While the USDA’s relief plan helps offset the impact of bird flu, the administration is also pushing for reforms in agricultural subsidies and enhanced monitoring of industry practices to ensure fair pricing. The administration's approach highlights a broader focus on both consumer protection and market stability, though significant improvements have yet to fully resolve the ongoing difficulties faced by consumers.

In 2025, egg prices are expected to remain volatile due to ongoing supply chain challenges. While the government's relief efforts and investigations into price-gouging may provide some stabilization, consumers will likely continue to face higher costs. Alternative sources of protein, such as backyard chickens and international imports, may offer some relief, but overall, egg prices are expected to stay elevated with gradual recovery over the course of the year.