Bright Forecast for Peru's 2024 Avocado Campaign in Global Market Despite Issues

Peru has become a significant player in the global avocado market, leveraging its favorable climate, diverse agricultural zones, and increasing investment in farming techniques and infrastructure. The country's strategic positioning allows for year-round production, enabling it to meet international demand consistently. Over the past decade, Peruvian avocados have gained recognition for their quality and taste, propelling them to the forefront of the nation's agricultural exports.

In 2023, avocados emerged as the third highest-earning Peruvian agricultural export, trailing only fresh grapes and fresh blueberries, as well as other fruits of the genus Vaccinium. The avocado industry achieved a substantial economic impact, with revenues exceeding USD 963.43 million and an export volume of 599 thousand tons. Peruvian avocados reached 40 international markets in 2023, with the Netherlands, Spain, the United States (US), Chile, and the United Kingdom (UK) being the top destinations. These five markets accounted for more than 80% of the total avocado exports.

2024 Forecast

The Peruvian avocado market continues to flourish in 2024, solidifying the country's position as a major global exporter. With a robust agricultural sector and strategic market expansion, Peru is making significant strides in the international avocado industry. The President of the Association of Hass Avocado Producers of Peru (ProHass) has indicated that the current production campaign might see a 30% reduction compared to the 2023 production volume of 570 thousand tons. This decline is attributed to the high temperatures experienced in the last half of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 due to the El Niño phenomenon. The quality of the avocados has also been impacted, with a 20% to 30% decrease in the size of the avocados this year.

In terms of export volume, avocado exports from Peru are expected to be approximately 540 thousand tons in 2024. This represents a 9.85% reduction compared to the previous year due to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon. Despite the drop in export volume, Peruvian avocado exports are expected to generate USD 970 million in 2024, staying close to the USD 963.43 million earned in 2023. This slight increase in export value, despite the lower volume, is attributed to an expected average export price of USD 1.80 per kilogram (kg) for avocados in 2024, which represents a 12.4% increase from the average export price of USD 1.61/kg in 2023. The rise in price is due to a decrease in global supply.
Figure 1. Peruvian Avocado Export Volume in 2023 and 2024 Forecast

So far, the 2024 avocado campaign in Peru has proven successful. According to a report by the Ministry of Agricultural Development and Irrigation (Midagri), Peru closed the first two months of the 2024 season as the second largest avocado exporter in the world, following Mexico. In January and February, Peru exported over 36,360 tons of avocados, generating USD 75.4 million in revenue. This performance marks a substantial year-over-year (YoY) increase, with a 79.2% rise in export volume and a 72.7% increase in value compared to the same period in 2023.

Figure 2. Peruvian Avocado Export Volume in Jan to Feb 2024

Data from the Peruvian National Superintendency of Customs and Tax Administration (Sunat) highlights that Peru exported avocados to 13 international markets in the first two months of 2024. Serving as a key logistical hub in Europe, the Netherlands emerged as the largest importer, accounting for 36.7% of the total export volume. China followed with 20.2%, while Spain imported 14.5%. Chile, a key South American partner, saw an exponential increase, contributing 9% to the total volume. Hong Kong also featured prominently, importing 7.9% of Peruvian avocados.

Figure 3. Peruvian Avocado Export Markets in Jan to Feb 2024

Peru's avocado industry epitomizes the nation's agricultural prowess and strategic market positioning. Despite encountering challenges such as the impact of El Niño on production and subsequent diminution in avocado size, Peru retains its prominence in the global avocado market. The early triumph of Peru's 2024 avocado campaign, evidenced by substantial upswings in export volume and revenue during the initial two months of the year, underscores the industry's resilience and adaptability. With persistent strategic market expansion and unwavering dedication to quality, Peru stands poised to uphold its leadership in the international avocado trade, thereby fostering the nation's economic growth and agricultural prosperity.