Brazil's Orange Production Drop Forecast for the 2024/25 Season and Global Market Implications

Brazil’s Orange Market Production Overview

Brazil is the world's leading producer of oranges, contributing significantly to the global supply of both fresh oranges and orange juice. The country's favorable climate, extensive citrus-growing regions, and advanced agricultural practices have positioned it at the forefront of the citrus industry. In the 2023/24 orange season, Brazil maintained its position as the leading producer of fresh oranges, with a production of 16.5 million metric tons (mt), according to the USDA. This accounts for 34% of the global orange production. Brazil is followed by China, which produces 16% of the world's oranges, the European Union (EU) with 11%, Mexico with 10%, and Egypt with 8%.

Figure 1. 2023/24 Season Orange Production Market Share

The primary orange-producing regions in Brazil are located in the Southeast, particularly in the states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais. São Paulo alone accounts for over 70% of the national production.

2024/25 Season Brazil’s Orange Production Forecast

For the 2024/25 orange crop, Fundecitrus, a private association supported by citrus growers and juice industries in São Paulo, estimates a total of 168.54 million productive trees. The sector expects to produce 232.38 million boxes, each weighing 40.8 kilograms (kg) or 9.48 billion kg. This marks a significant decrease of 24.4% compared to the previous harvest.

Figure 2. 2024/25 Season Orange Production Forecast

Regarding production changes, the Northwest is forecasted to be the most affected region, with a 59.5% year-over-year (YoY) decline, resulting in 11.84 million 40.8 kg boxes. The North follows with a 47% drop to 47.87 million boxes, the Southwest with a 32.2% decline to 76.31 million boxes, the Center with a 27.8% decrease to 57.9 million boxes, and the South with a 22.7% drop to 38.46 million boxes.

Figure 3. Estimate of the 2024/25 Brazilian Orange Crop by Sector

The significant decrease in Brazil's orange production for the 2024-2025 season is primarily due to adverse climatic conditions. A severe heatwave in September 2023 caused high water stress and substantial fruit drop, with subsequent heatwaves exacerbating these issues by leading to smaller fruit sizes and increased fruit drop rates. The intensified impact of citrus greening disease also contributed to higher early fruit drop rates, particularly in the late Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties.

Brazil’s Orange Production Forecast Effect in the Global Market

The forecasted 24.4% decrease in Brazil's orange production for the 2024/25 season will have significant repercussions on the global market. As the world's leading producer, Brazil's reduced output, driven by adverse climatic conditions and citrus greening disease, is expected to tighten the supply of fresh oranges and orange juice worldwide. This substantial decrease is likely to drive up global prices for these products, disrupt supply chains, and cause shortages in countries heavily reliant on Brazilian imports, such as the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Other major producers, like China, the EU, Mexico, and Egypt, may see increased demand, leading to a more competitive market and potential price increases in these regions. Juice manufacturers may struggle to secure sufficient supplies, leading to higher production costs and potential changes in product formulations and pricing. Additionally, reduced output will impact Brazil's rural economy, potentially causing financial strain for farmers and associated industries. The situation underscores the need for continued investment in agricultural practices and disease control to mitigate future impacts and stabilize the market.