Weather tempers Morocco’s wheat outlook

The 2025 wheat crop in Morocco is projected to be lower than the 10-year average due to hot and dry early season conditions and a decrease in planted area, despite heavy March rains. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts total wheat production at 2.8 million tonnes, which while higher than the previous season, is significantly below the estimated 4.15 million tonnes in 2023-24. To meet a projected wheat demand of 10 million tonnes, Morocco's 2025-26 imports are expected to reach 7.3 million tonnes, a 42% increase compared to the 10-year average. The government continues to support common wheat imports to maintain low prices for bread, with Russia emerging as a significant supplier. The industry anticipates a substantial decline in feed consumption due to a decrease in livestock numbers, with overall demand projected at 1.6 million tonnes, down from 2.2 million in 2024-25.

Despite heavy rains in March, the 2025 wheat crop in Morocco will be below the 10-year average due to hot and dry weather early in the growing season and less area planted, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. Production for marketing year 2025-26, which begins in June, is forecast at 1.7 million tonnes for common wheat, 1.1 million tonnes for durum wheat, and 700,000 tonnes for barley. Total wheat production of 2.8 million tonnes will be higher than the 2.46 million tonnes the previous season but remain significantly below an estimated 4.15 million tonnes in 2023-24. Barley faces the same dilemma, though 2025-26 production will improve on the previous season’s 660,000 tonnes, it falls short of the estimated 1.35 million tonnes harvested in 2023-24. “The 2025 season faced significant challenges, primarily due to an extended period of drought,” the FAS said. “The severe lack of rainfall at the beginning of the ...