Ukraine. High barley prices but low exports

During the period of July 2024 to March 2025, Ukraine saw a 7% increase in barley exports compared to the previous season, reaching nearly 2.1 M mt. The majority of these exports were concentrated in the first four months of the season, with a significant portion being sent to China. However, Chinese imports of Ukrainian barley came to a halt after September 2024, as the country sought to reduce feed grain imports to support local farmers. Despite this setback, Ukrainian barley prices remained steady at around $221-223/mt CPT Odesa in March 2025. Despite being more expensive than other suppliers, Ukrainian barley remains competitive in markets near the Black Sea due to its quality. Ukrainian farmers are expected to focus on margin and guaranteed sales for the 2025/26 season, as barley may be less profitable than corn and oilseeds under these criteria.

Barley exports In July 2024 –March 2025, Ukraine exported almost 2.1 M mt of barley, which is 7% above last season’s figures but below the average for the last 5 seasons. January shipments generally set an anti-record in terms of export volumes. Most of the exports were shipped in the first 4 months of the season (July-October). China remains the main importer of Ukrainian barley in the 2024/25 season, although China only bought Ukrainian barley in the first months of the season. After September 2024, China stopped importing Ukrainian barley as Chinese traders were asked to reduce feed grain imports to support local farmers. According to UkrAgroConsult’s analysis, the spring 2025 surge in activity as it was last two seasons is not expected due to: Price performance and forecasts for 2025/26 In March 2025, the barley price was virtually unchanged at $221-223/mt CPT Odesa. Domestic prices have recently been supported by the rise in corn prices. It is clear that Ukrainian ...