Russian wheat exports may drop to 40.7 mln tons

Russia's wheat exports for the marketing year 2024/25 are projected to decline to 40.7 million tons due to low profitability and strict state regulation, according to analytical center SovEkon. The decrease is attributed to quotas on grain supplies, increased export duties, and economic factors such as higher domestic wheat prices and a stronger ruble. Agro-climatic conditions, including drought and reduced sown areas, have also impacted the harvest, resulting in a decrease to about 82.6 million tons in 2024. However, a slight increase in production is expected in 2025 to 87.5 million tons. The grain sector in the Black Sea and Danube region will be discussed at the 23 International Conference BLACK SEA GRAIN.KYIV on April 24 in Kyiv.

Russian wheat exports in the MY 2024/25 are showing a downward trend, which is a consequence of low profitability of supplies and strict state regulation. According to the forecasts of the analytical center “SovEkon”, the volume of exports may decrease to 40.7 million tons, which is lower than the average of the last five years. This is a significant drop compared to the record year of 2023, when Russia exported 54 million tons of wheat. One of the main reasons for the decrease in exports is the introduction of quotas for grain supplies. From February 15, 2024, the Russian government has established a quota for wheat exports in the amount of 10.6 million tons, which is significantly lower than last year’s level. In addition, the increase in export duties further reduces the profitability of sales to foreign markets. Because of this, large traders are holding back shipments, waiting for more favorable conditions. The situation is also affected by the increase in domestic prices ...