Supply deficit projection keeps cocoa prices high in the global market

The cocoa processing industry expects record prices and production levels in 2025 due to a global supply deficit of 500,000 tons, primarily caused by climate issues in West Africa, illegal mining in Ghana, and declining plant health in Ivory Coast. The industry also faces challenges from aging plants, lack of investment, and drought in Brazil. High prices have allowed producers to invest in boosting productivity, and the industry anticipates stable productivity growth in Brazil. However, the average price per ton is expected to need to exceed $8,000 due to reduced stocks, potentially leading to decreased chocolate production and consumption.

After this year's historic prices — yesterday, cocoa hit a new high of US$12,565 per ton on the New York Stock Exchange — the cocoa processing industry believes that 2025 should be a year of more records. According to Anna Paula Losi, CEO of the Cocoa Processing Industry Association (AIPC), the reason is the global supply deficit that has already reached 500,000 tons, mainly due to climate problems in West Africa, which concentrates the world's production. In Ghana, the second largest global producer, reports are that cocoa areas are being lost to illegal mining, says Losi. In Ivory Coast, the largest producer of the bean, losses are occurring due to aging plants, climate problems and a lack of investment in crops, which favor the emergence of pests and diseases. The situation was also difficult for cocoa producers in Bahia, who suffered from the drought this year. According to the director, there were many cases of brown rot in the crops in Bahia. “The harvest was only not worse ...