Pakistan’s 2025 rice export landscape likely to change as India lifts ban

The US Department of Agriculture has forecasted a 3.65% decrease in Pakistan's rice production for the 2024-25 season, leading to an 11.48% drop in rice exports for the 2024-25 marketing year. This is due to India's re-entry into the rice export market, which is expected to shift demand dynamics. Despite facing tough competition, particularly in Basmati and Non-Basmati markets, Pakistan remains a competitive supplier, especially in East Africa. However, fluctuating freight rates could influence demand from this region. There are plans to diversify markets and increase export revenue to $5 billion by 2025.

According to data sourced from the latest US Department of Agriculture report, Pakistan’s rice production forecast for the 2024-25 season has been revised to 9.5 million mt, reflecting a 3.65% decrease in potential area and yield. Meanwhile, projections for rice exports have declined by 11.48% year over year for the 2024-25 marketing year (November-October), estimated at around 5.8 million mt, based on the latest USDA data. Pakistan’s demand dynamics are anticipated to shift for the upcoming year, especially with India’s re-entry into the market after lifting its ban on white rice exports. Pakistan is one of the top five largest rice exporters globally. It benefits from favorable planting conditions and the likelihood of sufficient irrigation water throughout the growing season, which suggests a promising harvest. In FY 2023-24, Pakistan’s rice exports nearly doubled, driven by an abundant harvest, India’s export ban, competitive pricing, and increased demand from countries namely ...