No mountain of beef coming from Australia so get your orders in

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has revised the cattle herd numbers up by 4.34 million due to a change in methodology, causing concern among beef exporters about potential oversupply. However, forecasters predict a tight cattle supply and decreasing beef production for the next three years. The ABS's new methodology includes counting smaller producers, which has led to the increase in herd numbers. Global AgriTrends analyst Simon Quilty believes this adjustment will improve forecasting and decision-making in the industry, and urges support from the industry for the new methodology. Quilty also recommends reintroducing a five-year census survey to ensure accurate herd size estimates.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics' recalculation of the size of the cattle herd which adds 4.34 million head has caused some concern among beef exporters that overseas customers might perceive Australia has a mountain of meat coming. That's not the case and some forecasters even say cattle supply, and therefore beef production, will be tighter for the next three years. While the Australian Bureau of Statistics has clearly said the new figures are the result of a change in methodology aimed at aligning with industry ways of assessing the herd size, the concerns are around the reluctance of global customers to order if they think added volume might push prices down in the near future. Analysts say there may indeed be negative fallout for exporters initially but it will eventually iron out as it becomes clear there are no massive loads of beef coming through the Australia pipeline. Some processors have told ACM Agri the ABS change was necessary and will be to the benefit of all in ...