Coffee in Brazil: low global supply, firm external demand and devalued real explain rising exports, says Esalq-USP

Brazilian coffee exports reached 22 million 60-kilo bags in the first five months of the 2024/2025 harvest, nearly half of the previous season's total. This surge is attributed to low global supply, strong demand, and a strong dollar against the real. The dollar's appreciation of over 15% also played a role, causing the limited supply of coffee in the domestic market and Vietnam to drive robusta and arabica coffee prices up by as much as 100%. The price of arabica coffee in São Paulo reached a record high of over R$1,800 per 60-kilo bag, while robusta coffee prices fell below arabica due to anticipated heavy rainfall. However, concerns about the condition of the crops due to fires and lack of rainfall between August and September could lead to a precarious recovery for the next season.

Brazilian exports of Arabica and Robusta coffee totaled 22 million 60-kilo bags in the first five months of the 2024/2025 harvest. The positive performance in the current season is the result of a combination of factors such as low global supply of the product, firm external demand and a strong dollar against the real, according to an analysis by researchers at Cepea, the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (Esalq), USP campus in Piracicaba (SP).☕ Understand the scenario, below, in the report. The volume shipped at the beginning of the harvest corresponds to almost half of the amount shipped in the entire previous season, 2023/24, according to data from Cecafé, analyzed by Cepea and released in a bulletin this past Wednesday (18). The dollar closed higher in June of this year, at the end of the first five months of the coffee harvest, ending the first half of 2024 with an appreciation of more than 15%. At the time, ...