Cocoa: Sequence of crop failures in Africa keeps prices high, above US$ 10,000/t in 2025

Cocoa was the most valued commodity of 2024, reaching a record price of US$12,565 per ton due to a combination of factors including limited supply and increasing demand. This appreciation is attributed to successive drops in production in African countries, unstable weather, and diseases in cocoa trees. The future curve suggests possible stabilization, but continued deficits in the 2024/25 harvest could sustain high prices. The market's volatility has led to liquidation of positions and a decrease in open contracts, with unpredictable future directions influenced by economic and climate factors. The rise in prices has led to strategies by industries to mitigate impacts, such as adjusting formulas and reducing the amount of cocoa in products.

Cocoa ended 2024 as the most valued commodity of the year, reaching a record price of US$12,565 per ton on the New York Stock Exchange, representing an annual increase of approximately 300%. This appreciation reflects a challenging scenario, marked by successive drops in production in African countries, the main global suppliers. This situation has put pressure on stocks and worsened the imbalance between limited supply and growing demand. Volatility is expected to persist in 2025, with unstable weather and the spread of diseases in African cocoa trees as the main risk factors. This context raises doubts about the sustainability of such high prices in the long term. Like other commodities, the cocoa market is intrinsically linked to supply and demand dynamics. However, the product has been shaped by an atypical scenario, impacted by economic fundamentals, speculation and financial dynamics. These combined forces have created an unstable and unpredictable environment, defying ...