Pakistan’s Rice Prices Surged 132.41% YoY During W49 Due to Flood in Sindh Province

Rice prices in Pakistan surged by 132.19% YoY during W49, reaching USD 0.50/kg due to devastating floods in Sindh and increased production costs. Meanwhile, rice exports declined by 17.3% in the first two months of the 2023/24 marketing year, attributed to lower inventories and an expectation of recovery during the upcoming harvest season for specific rice varieties.
Rice prices in Pakistan saw a substantial year-on-year (YoY) increase of 132.41% in W49, reaching USD 0.50 per kilogram (kg) compared to USD 0.22/kg in 2022. Prices experienced a 2% week-on-week (WoW) increase from USD 0.49/kg in W48, while month-on-month (MoM) prices remained unchanged. The rice prices, which ranged from USD 0.18 to 0.20/kg in the first half of 2023, significantly rose to a range of USD 0.60 to 0.75/kg from Jul-23, with the highest price recorded at USD 0.75/kg during W41, marking a notable contrast from the highest price in 2022, which was only USD 0.29/kg. The surge is mainly attributed to devastating floods in Sindh, which eradicated nearly 1.9 million metric tons (mmt), or 80% of the expected rice production in 2023, and a record increase in production costs. Additionally, an expected rise in exports, influenced by India's export ban and a floor price on Basmati shipments, contributed to the price hike. Despite increased international buying, late arrivals of the Southern Punjab crop lowered prices. Concurrently, rice exports from Pakistan declined by 17.3% in the first two months of the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), reaching USD 233 million, with specific varieties like IRRI-6, IRRI-9, and Broken rice experiencing a 28% decrease, attributed to lower inventories and an anticipation of future recovery during the upcoming harvest season for IRRI varieties.