Original content
Linseed prices in India decreased by 22.2% YoY to USD 0.59/kg in W50 2023, due to an optimistic production forecast for the 2022/23 season in India. However, the anticipation of reduced global linseed production in the 2023/24 season hints at a potential price recovery in India.
Soybean prices in Brazil are down 13.81% year-on-year (YoY) in W51, reaching USD 0.50 per kilogram (kg) compared to USD 0.58/kg in Dec-22. However, there was a 2% week-on-week increase from USD 0.49/kg in W50. Brazilian soybean prices were notably lower than early 2023 levels, with the highest price reaching USD 0.60/kg in Jan-23. Additionally, current soybean prices are comparatively lower than those in 2022, when the highest recorded price was USD 0.68/kg.
The recent drop in soybean prices is due to the projected Brazilian 2023/24 soybean crop, set to reach a record-breaking 153 million metric tons (mmt), representing an 18% increase YoY, according to the latest estimate from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is influenced by an anticipated 2.5% YoY increase in Brazilian soybean acreage to reach 112 million acres, with the most significant expansion expected in the North and Northeast regions. Producers are choosing soybeans over corn due to unattractive corn prices, and the El Niño weather pattern is adversely affecting the corn outlook in Brazil.
Additionally, despite encountering some delays in the harvest due to drought, Brazil is advancing towards achieving substantial production, aided by forecasted rains in crucial planting areas. However, the abundance of the Brazilian harvest has the potential to limit global demand for US soybeans.
Trade4go
Dec 21st, 2023
