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Global olive oil production is forecasted to rise by 32% in the 2024/25 season, reaching 3.375 million tons, driven by recoveries in Spain, Greece, and Italy after last year’s declines. Greece aims to produce 250,000 tons, while Spain and Italy are expected to contribute 1.29 million and 224,000 tons, respectively. Consumption is also projected to grow by 10% to 3.064 million tons, signaling potential market recovery and increased demand in the year ahead.
The Southwest Buenos Aires Regional Council has unveiled plans for the Olive Oil Route, blending olive oil production with agrotourism and local gastronomy to drive sustainable economic growth. Featuring oil tastings, workshops, and guided tours of plantations and mills, the initiative aims to attract tourists and highlight the region's unique agricultural potential. Spanning 2,500 hectares (ha) with over 350,000 olive trees, the region produces over 1 million liters (L) of olive oil annually, leveraging traditional and mechanized farming methods. With investments in infrastructure, sustainability, and producer training, the project positions the region as a leader in olive oil production and tourism.
Spain’s olive oil mills face a growing crisis amid soaring olive oil prices. With 2,219 mills processing an average of 7.4 million tons annually, production fluctuates from 10.2 to 4.2 million tons, creating cost disparities of up to USD 0.72 per kilogram (EUR 0.70/kg). This volatility pressures mills to scale up or shut down, with 500 closures predicted in Spain and Portugal within a decade. Without modernization, the sector risks losing its role in supporting rural communities and Spain's economy.
After a challenging 2024 marked by a historic drought and a reduced olive oil harvest of 614 metric tons (mt), Uruguay anticipates a significant production rebound in 2025 due to favorable weather conditions. Rising domestic production is capturing a growing share of local consumption, reducing reliance on imports, which have steadily declined. Export volumes also fell in 2024, but Brazil and the United States (US) remain key target markets, with Brazil benefiting from geographical proximity and Mercosur agreements, and the US offering premium pricing for high-quality products. Increasing global demand and shifting consumer preferences toward healthier foods signal promising growth opportunities for the sector.
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The price of olive oil in Spain has remained relatively stable, with a minor 0.88% increase week-on-week (WoW), bringing the price to USD 4.61/kg. However, month-over-month (MoM) and year-over-year (YoY) prices have shown a notable decline, dropping by 7.80% and 53.01%, respectively. This downward trend is attributed to a recovery in global olive oil supply, with production forecasted to rise by 32% in the 2024/25 season. Supply in Spain is stabilizing after a tough year, and prices are expected to continue decreasing as global supply improves. Additionally, competition from other vegetable oils is pushing prices down. After last year's price surges due to supply shortages, the market is recovering, contributing to the current price drop and ongoing stabilization.
Olive oil prices in Italy dropped to USD 9.81/kg in W2, reflecting a significant 14.32% WoW decrease after prices peaked at USD 11.45/kg in W1, driven by high demand at the beginning of 2025. This week's price drop signals a return to more normal levels. MoM and YoY prices have also declined by 3.35% and 9%, respectively, as global olive oil supply increases. In Italy, supply is stabilizing following a challenging year that led to higher prices. The global recovery in supply and improved conditions within Italy are contributing to this downward trend in prices, aiding in market stabilization.
Olive oil prices in Greece have fluctuated recently, with a slight drop of 2.87% WoW, bringing prices down to USD 4.40/kg in W2. However, prices showed a 1.15% increase MoM despite a YoY decrease of 55.33%. This YoY decline reflects the overall trend of improving olive oil production both in Greece and globally. The fluctuations in prices are partly driven by competitive pressures and rising production costs, especially labor wages, which continue to challenge Greek producers. As global olive oil production improves, prices are expected to remain lower than last year, with forecasts suggesting that production improvements will continue to exert downward pressure on prices in the near future.
Olive oil prices in Tunisia have remained relatively stable, with a minor 0.23% decrease WoW, bringing prices to USD 4.29/kg in W2 2025. Prices also dropped slightly by 1.15% MoM. Despite increasing global supply, Tunisia's prices have been relatively steady, though the country faces challenges. Despite rising global supply, challenges such as inflated production figures, poor marketing, and low export prices are weakening Tunisia’s competitiveness against major producers. Without better pricing and sales strategies, Tunisia faces downward pressure on prices and long-term market challenges.
Given the price volatility and recovering global supply, producers in Spain, Greece, and Tunisia should focus on value-added products such as organic or flavored olive oils to target premium markets, particularly in the US and Europe. This could help offset lower bulk prices and tap into the growing demand for higher-quality, health-oriented products.
Ongoing challenges like fluctuating production levels and rising labor costs highlight the need for technological advancements. Investing in automation, mechanization, and energy-efficient production methods could help lower operational costs and increase production reliability. Additionally, modernizing olive oil mills to meet growing demand would strengthen competitiveness in both domestic and international markets, ensuring long-term sustainability and price stability.
In light of fluctuating olive oil prices, producers in these countries should consider adopting more sophisticated pricing strategies, such as hedging and forward contracts. This will help stabilize revenue streams and protect against market volatility. Additionally, implementing better stock management practices, including optimized storage and distribution, could allow producers to respond more flexibly to changing demand and supply conditions.
Sources: Tridge, El Pais, Oleo, Olive Oil Times, Tovima, Xataca
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