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Trade4go
Apr 4th, 2025
Original content
The recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Slovakia, which affected over 1,000 dairy cows, raises concerns for Europe's livestock industry, particularly the dairy sector. With previous cases reported in Germany and Hungary, the spread of the disease threatens milk production and trade, prompting Slovakia to seek assistance from the European Commission (EC). Strict containment measures, including movement restrictions and trade bans, have been implemented to prevent further transmission. Neighboring countries like Bulgaria are intensifying biosecurity protocols to safeguard their dairy and livestock sectors from potential outbreaks. Ukraine has also responded by banning imports of animal products from Slovakia and Hungary, though it has resumed dairy imports from Germany under new health certification agreements. Given the risk of FMD transmission through contaminated animal products, dairy farmers across Europe are urged to adhere to stringent hygiene and biosecurity measures to ensure the stability of the dairy supply chain.
Belarus has revised its minimum export prices for dairy and meat products to regulate pricing in foreign markets and safeguard domestic agricultural producers. The updated list includes milk, cream (condensed and powdered), butter with varying fat percentages, and cheeses, including low-fat and fat-free varieties for melting. These price adjustments are tailored to different importing regions, such as Russia, other Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, excluding Georgia, and non-CIS markets. By implementing this measure, the Belarusian government aims to stabilize dairy prices, prevent market dumping, and maintain product quality while ensuring fair competition for local producers.
Bolivia is advancing negotiations to export milk and dairy products to Chile as part of broader trade discussions involving beef and poultry. The Ministry of Foreign Trade confirmed that Chilean inspections of fluid milk export plants are scheduled, reflecting progress in securing market access. The Chilean government's recognition of Bolivia’s Altiplano macro-region as a FMD-free zone without vaccination through Exempt Resolution 2965 further facilitates dairy exports. These efforts align with Bolivia’s broader strategy to diversify its agricultural export markets and reduce reliance on traditional partners. While the potential opening of Chile and Egypt could significantly boost Bolivia’s livestock and dairy industries, beef exports remain restricted as the government prioritizes domestic price stabilization before expanding foreign sales.
Ukraine’s cattle population saw a slight increase in Mar-25 compared to Feb-25, with a 3% rise in total cattle numbers to 2.82 million heads. However, the number of dairy cows continued to decline, dropping by 1% month-on-month (MoM) and 8% year-on-year (YoY) to 1.15 million heads. Industrial farms now hold 44% of the cattle, while households account for 56%. Despite the growth in cattle numbers, raw milk production has been declining. In Feb-25, Ukraine produced 439 thousand metric tons (mt) of raw milk, 14 thousand mt less than in Jan-25 and 24 thousand mt lower than in Feb-24. The industrial sector produced 55% of this milk, while households contributed 45%. While enterprises slightly increased milk production compared to the previous year, household production saw a sharper decline of 12%. Analysts suggest that declining demand for dairy products may lead to further reductions in milk output, as dairy farms hesitate to expand production.
In W13, whole powdered milk in Germany averaged USD 4.78 per kilogram (kg), down 0.62% week-on-week (WoW). Despite the WoW decline, this price remains 3.69% MoM higher and represents a significant 31.32% YoY rise. The sharp YoY increase was driven by supply constraints following an FMD outbreak in Jan-25, which led to containment measures, including an export ban. However, with Germany regaining FMD-free status in most areas by Mar-25, export restrictions on meat and dairy products were lifted, allowing Ukraine and other countries to resume dairy imports under new health certification agreements. Additionally, rising prices reflect a shrinking number of dairy farms, high production costs, and adverse weather limiting output.
In Belgium, whole powdered milk prices stood at USD 3.82/kg in W13, reflecting a modest 0.52% WoW decline. However, this price is still 2.96% higher MoM and 0.79% above the same time last year. Despite fluctuations, the price has remained relatively stable in the last three weeks, ranging from USD 3.82/kg and USD 3.84/kg. According to market intelligence platform CLAL.it, Belgium’s milk production in Jan-25 was estimated at 398 thousand mt, unchanged from Jan-24. However, concerns about rising farming costs, ongoing labor shortages, and the long-term decline in dairy farming as farmers age and exit the industry are tightening supply.
In W13, skimmed milk powder prices in the Netherlands averaged USD 2.32/kg, reflecting a 1.69% WoW drop and an 18.31% YoY decrease. However, the price remained 3.57% higher compared to the previous month. The notable YoY and WoW declines can be attributed to seasonal increases in milk production, as weather conditions improve with the transition from colder months, placing downward pressure on prices. The milder weather likely promoted pasture regrowth and an ample supply of natural forage, boosting milk production.
In W13, semi-skimmed milk powder prices in France averaged USD 2.69/kg, marking a slight 0.37% WoW drop and a substantial 22.48% YoY decline. Despite this, the price remained 3.86% higher compared to the previous month. The significant YoY price drop can be attributed to a rebound in milk production, following a shift in weather patterns from colder to warmer conditions. This change likely promoted pasture regrowth, resulting in increased milk production.
European dairy farmers must implement rigorous biosecurity protocols to mitigate the risk of FMD transmission. Farms should enforce strict movement controls, sanitize equipment and vehicles, and ensure proper disinfection of personnel. Governments and dairy associations should provide financial support for enhanced surveillance, rapid testing, and emergency vaccination programs where feasible. Additionally, cross-border collaboration between European Union (EU) countries on disease monitoring and information-sharing can help contain outbreaks and minimize disruptions to milk production and trade.
Belarus should complement its minimum export price policy with market diversification efforts to reduce reliance on a few key trade partners. Strengthening trade agreements with non-traditional markets beyond the EAEU and CIS regions can help maintain competitive pricing while safeguarding domestic dairy producers. Additionally, supporting dairy cooperatives and processors with subsidies for value-added dairy products, such as specialty cheeses and high-protein dairy ingredients, can improve export competitiveness and sustain industry profitability.
To maximize the benefits of expanded trade with Chile and other markets, Bolivia should invest in upgrading its dairy processing facilities to meet international quality standards. Government agencies should work closely with dairy producers to enhance certification processes and ensure compliance with Chilean and global food safety regulations. Furthermore, establishing long-term trade agreements with emerging markets like Egypt can provide additional revenue streams and reduce dependency on domestic dairy demand fluctuations.
Sources: Tridge, Agri, Agromeat, Agropolit, Rosng, Sinor
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