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Colombia is enhancing productivity and addressing pricing pressures through new negotiation models. Following a challenging 2023, marked by reduced rainfall and lower yields, 2024 has brought improvements in operational efficiency and soil management, with a projected 5% productivity increase in 2025. The European market remains the primary destination, accounting for 66% of exports—mainly to Germany, Italy, and Belgium—while the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) receive 16% and 15%, respectively. Despite a 20% decline in European banana prices over the past two decades, Colombia is adapting by moving away from downward auctions and adopting pricing strategies that incorporate social and environmental factors. Moreover, Colombia is strengthening its competitive position in global markets by prioritizing sustainability, efficient agricultural practices, and carbon neutrality.
The unchecked influx of Indian bananas into Nepal remains a major concern, with accusations that the government has failed to take sufficient action. Chitwan, Nepal’s primary banana-producing region, spans approximately 3.2 thousand hectares (ha) and supports over 700 farmers, yet local producers face increasing challenges due to illegal imports. The continued supply of Indian bananas threatens the domestic industry, underscoring the urgent need for stricter enforcement measures to protect Nepal’s banana farmers and ensure market stability.
A University of Exeter study warns that by 2080, rising temperatures could make banana cultivation economically unsustainable across much of Latin America and the Caribbean. As a key export crop worth USD 11 billion annually, bananas are vital to these economies, yet 60% of current production areas may struggle to remain viable without urgent climate adaptation. Colombia and Costa Rica are expected to face the major challenges due to excessive heat, while Ecuador and parts of Brazil may remain viable producers. The study underscores the need for investments in irrigation, heat-resistant banana varieties, and infrastructure to help farmers adapt to climate risks.
The UK faces banana shortages as tropical storms disrupt Pacific shipping routes, stranding cargo ships and delaying deliveries to major retailers like Tesco and Marks & Spencer. Empty shelves and store notices apologizing for the unavailability of bananas have been reported in cities such as London, Maidstone, and Bournemouth. The disruption primarily affects supplies from key exporting countries, including Ecuador, the Philippines, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Colombia. With six tropical storms reported in the South Pacific and Indian Oceans in late February, weather-related shipping delays continue to pose significant challenges for the UK’s banana supply chains.
Vietnam has overtaken the Philippines as China’s top banana supplier, signaling a major market shift. In 2023, China imported a record 625.1 thousand metric tons (mt) from Vietnam, while imports from the Philippines fell to 463.3 thousand mt, the lowest in over a decade. This decline is largely due to Panama disease affecting Philippine production, while Vietnam benefits from lower logistics costs, supported by a rail link. The Philippines’ share of China’s banana market has dropped from 70% in 2017 to 27.47%, whereas Vietnam now holds 37.06%. Insufficient investment in disease management, lack of farm consolidation, and geopolitical tensions have further weakened the Philippines’ position in China’s 1.8 million metric tons (mmt) banana import market.
Ecuador's banana prices remained stable at USD 0.26 per kilogram (kg) in W10, with a 16.13% month-on-month (MoM) decline and a 35% year-on-year (YoY) decrease due to sustained high export volumes amid strong demand from the European Union (EU), the US, and Russia. However, increased shipments from other major producers, particularly in Central and South America, have heightened competition, limiting price recovery. Additionally, ongoing logistical disruptions, including port congestion and high freight costs, have added pressure on exporters, further constraining price stability despite steady international demand.
Philippine banana prices held steady at USD 1.27/kg in W10, showing a 0.78% MoM and YoY decrease due to continued weak export demand from China, which has been affected by geopolitical tensions in the West Philippine Sea. Additionally, the spread of Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4 (Foc TR4) continues to impact production, leading to higher cultivation costs and lower yields. While local supply remains stable due to favorable weather conditions, increased competition from Latin American suppliers in key export markets has further pressured prices, limiting potential recovery.
Banana prices in Colombia remained stable at USD 0.48/kg in W10, with a 2.04% MoM drop and a 4% YoY decrease due to persistent pricing pressures in the European market, where long-term price declines continue to affect profitability. Despite stable export demand from key markets such as the US and Europe, logistical inefficiencies, including infrastructure challenges and port delays, have contributed to supply chain disruptions. Additionally, heightened phytosanitary measures to combat Foc TR4 have increased production costs, further influencing price dynamics. However, Colombia's shift towards sustainable pricing strategies and improved productivity measures may help stabilize prices in the long term.
In W10, banana prices in Guatemala have remained stable at USD 0.22/kg since W7, with a 29.41% YoY increase due to lower production volumes in early 2025, which has tightened supply and supported prices. Adverse weather conditions in key growing regions have impacted yields, while strong export demand from the US and Europe continues to sustain price levels. Additionally, higher input costs, particularly for fertilizers and labor, have kept production expenses elevated, preventing price declines despite steady weekly trends.
UK banana importers should diversify sourcing by strengthening supply chains with West African producers like Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana to reduce reliance on storm-affected Pacific routes. Establishing flexible logistics agreements, such as multi-port docking options and alternative shipping schedules, can help mitigate future disruptions. Retailers can also collaborate with suppliers to improve stock forecasting and ensure steady inventory levels during extreme weather events.
Colombian banana exporters should expand direct contracts with European retailers, and prioritize fair pricing over downward auctions. Emphasizing sustainability certifications, carbon neutrality, and ethical labor practices can justify premium pricing and strengthen long-term trade relationships. Collaborating with industry groups to promote Colombia’s responsible production methods can also enhance market positioning and price stability.
Sources: Tridge, Augura, Carbonbrief, Foodmate, Freshplaza, Philstar, Phys
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