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Argentina's Corn: The Nuance of "Abundant Supply" and Price Drops (Early 2024 Context) The 31.23% year-on-year price plummet reported in early March 2024 was largely a reflection of the record production from Argentina's 2023/2024 corn season. Favorable weather conditions in 2023 allowed for a substantial increase in output, leading to an oversupply in the market. This surge in availability, combined with a less significant decrease in Brazilian production than anticipated and increased supply from the US, created a bearish sentiment in the international corn market. This "abundant supply" drove prices below equilibrium points, leading to expectations of improved yields and pushing down prices. The 2024/2025 Season: A Different Outlook Fast forward to mid-2025, and the narrative around Argentina's corn production and prices has evolved. While wholesale yellow maize prices in Argentina did see a seasonal decline of 5-10% month-on-month in May 2025 due to ongoing harvest supplies, the year-on-year comparison tells a different story. Higher Prices Year-on-Year: In May 2025, corn prices in Argentina were reported to be 30% higher year-on-year. This significant increase reflects expectations for a drought-stricken, below-average production for the current 2024/2025 season, coupled with a weakening local currency. Production Estimates Revised Down: The USDA's May 2025 report estimated Argentina's corn production for MY 2024/25 at 50.0 million metric tons, unchanged from the previous month, but down 2% from MY 2023/24. Other reports also indicated potential yield shortfalls in northern Argentina due to adverse weather, despite higher-than-average yields in central Argentina attempting to balance the overall estimate. Harvest Progress: As of April 21, 2025, Argentina's corn harvest was 23.1% complete nationwide, with varying progress across regions. Average nationwide corn yield had shown slight declines for two consecutive weeks, and expectations were for further declines as the harvest progressed. Export Forecasts: World corn exports are expected to fall by 2.4% in the 2024/25 season. Argentina's exports are projected at 36 million tons, down from the previous season's higher volumes. While corn grain exports increased by 46% in 2024 compared to 2023, the outlook for 2024/25 points to a reduced export volume compared to the previous, exceptionally strong year. Key Factors Shaping Argentina's Corn Market in 2025: Weather Conditions: While early 2024 benefited from favorable weather, the 2024/2025 season has faced challenges including persistent drought in key growing regions and concerns over insect infestations (like the corn stunt, or "chicharrita") that impacted planted areas in MY 2024/25. Global Supply and Demand Dynamics: The global corn balance for 2024/25 is expected to remain resilient, but with overall world corn exports projected to decline slightly. Competition from Brazil and the US, combined with potentially lower demand from China, all influence Argentine prices. Local Economic Policies and Currency Fluctuations: The weakening Argentine currency can make exports more attractive in local currency terms, but also impacts the cost of inputs for farmers. Government policies, including temporary lowering of export taxes on grains, also play a role. Farmer Decisions: Farmers' choices between corn and soybeans, influenced by profitability expectations and weather patterns, directly impact corn planted area and, consequently, production. Conclusion While the memory of a significant price plummet in early 2024 due to an abundant supply from the previous harvest is still fresh, the current reality for Argentina's corn in mid-2025 suggests a different trajectory. The 2024/2025 season is grappling with a more constrained supply outlook due to adverse weather and other production challenges. This has already translated into a notable year-on-year price increase, demonstrating the powerful impact of supply dynamics and global market forces on a vital agricultural commodity. Buyers and sellers alike will continue to closely monitor weather patterns in South America, global demand shifts, and policy changes to navigate the volatile corn market.

The U.S. steel market lastest report The U.S. steel market is currently experiencing a dynamic period influenced by a complex interplay of demand, supply, trade policies, and global trends. Here's a summary of the latest reports and key insights: Current State & Recent Trends (as of early June 2025): Prices: Steel prices in the USA have seen some fluctuations. FocusEconomics reported an average of USD 884 per metric ton in May, down 5.0% from April, with prices around USD 840/mt on May 30th. However, prices spiked in early June after the announcement of increased tariffs. Trading Economics shows steel prices around 2958.00 Yuan/MT (which translates to US dollars at current exchange rates, indicating a general stability with some recent upward movement). Production & Capacity Utilization: Weekly raw steel production in the U.S. was 1,757,000 net tons in the week ending May 31, 2025, with a capability utilization rate of 78.2%. This is a 2.8% increase from the same period last year. Year-to-date production through May 31, 2025, was 36,287,000 net tons, down 0.5% from the previous year. Capacity utilization has hovered around the mid-70s (e.g., 76.5% in March 2025), still falling short of the administration's stated goal of 80%. Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs) continue to dominate U.S. steel production, contributing to sustainability and efficiency improvements. Imports: U.S. carbon steel imports saw a significant decline in April 2025 (down 18.4% from March and 25.6% from April 2024), particularly in carbon flat-rolled products. This is attributed to tightening Section 232 exclusions and global reciprocal tariffs. Demand Drivers: Non-residential construction and public infrastructure projects (like those from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) remain key drivers of steel demand. The Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator for nonresidential construction, reached an all-time high in February 2025. Heavy Industry is identified as the fastest-growing end-use segment. The automotive sector, particularly the transition to electric vehicles, continues to drive demand for high-strength steel. The oil and gas industry and the rising demand for autonomous vehicles are also significant contributors. Challenges: New Tariffs: President Donald Trump's recent announcement to double steel import tariffs to 50% (effective June 4, 2025) is causing significant market disruption and uncertainty. This is expected to raise U.S. steel prices and shift trade flows. Global Overcapacity: Global steel overcapacity remains a persistent challenge, with significant planned capacity expansions worldwide, particularly in Asia. This could put downward pressure on prices and profitability. Trade Tensions & Import Competition: Despite tariffs, concerns about unfair trade practices, transshipment through third countries, and cheaper imports from non-tariffed regions persist. Softening Demand & Oversupply: Some reports indicate tepid demand, particularly in the agricultural equipment sector, and oversupply from 2024's import hangover, which can lead to price pressures. Economic Uncertainty: Broader economic uncertainty and flagging consumer sentiment could also weigh on demand. Outlook for 2025 and Beyond: Growth Projections: The U.S. steel market is expected to grow, with Grand View Research projecting a revenue of US$110,937.1 million by 2030, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.4% from 2025-2030. IMARC Group projects a CAGR of 1.7% during 2025-2033, reaching USD 164.0 Billion by 2033. Sustainability & Decarbonization: This is a defining trend for 2025, with steelmakers investing in green technologies, hydrogen-based steelmaking, carbon capture, and increased recycled steel usage. Digital Transformation: AI, machine learning, IoT, and data analytics are increasingly used to enhance operational efficiency, predictive maintenance, and quality control. Supply Chain Resilience & Regionalization: There's a growing focus on strengthening domestic production and prioritizing local sourcing to reduce dependence on external markets and minimize shipping disruptions. Policy Influence: Government policies, particularly regarding trade tariffs and infrastructure spending, will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the market. In conclusion, the U.S. steel market in mid-2025 is navigating a landscape of robust domestic demand from key sectors and ongoing efforts towards modernization and sustainability, but it faces significant headwinds from new tariff policies, global overcapacity, and the need to maintain competitive pricing.