Trade4go

https://trade4go.com/weekly-product-update/w37-2025-wheat-weekly-update Bearish Trends and Regional Imbalances Shake Global Wheat Trade The global wheat market in 2025 faces a bearish environment driven by oversupply, intense competition, and geopolitical tensions, creating significant challenges for investors and exporters. Russia continues to dominate exports, projected to ship 41.5 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025/26, while Australia leverages its access to Asia and high-quality wheat, and the United States (US) and Canada contend with domestic supply gluts and droughts. Rising production globally is offset by regional imbalances, logistical bottlenecks, and trade barriers, such as US tariffs on China and Mexico, which have diverted capital and shifted purchasing toward Russian and European Union (EU) wheat. European markets are pressured by Black Sea competition and technical corrections, with Russian wheat prices falling to between USD 228 per metric ton (mt) and USD 230/mt. Major importers like Egypt are reducing purchases due to organizational uncertainties, decreasing imports by over 27% year-on-year (YoY) in H1-2025, even as domestic demand rises. Weather conditions across Europe are mixed, alleviating drought in France and the Balkans while creating dry, hot conditions in southern Europe, affecting winter wheat and barley planting.....

Spain / EU Pork Meat Market Analysis (2025) Key Trends & Recent Developments 1. Production & Supply Growth in EU & Spain In the first half of 2025, EU pork production rose by ~3% year-over-year to ~10.91 million tonnes. Spain contributed the largest share of this increase, producing about 2.70 million tonnes, up ~7%. Slaughter numbers in Spain rose about 5% to ~28.0 million head. However, there is a decline in breeding pig population in Spain, which could constrain supply in the longer run. AHDB 2. Export Strength & Trade Access Gains Spain continues to be one of the leading pork exporters in the EU. In the first five months of 2025, Spain exported ~608,000 tonnes of pork to non-EU countries, an increase of ~11% YoY. That accounts for over a third of EU external pork exports. In April 2025, Spain signed a new export protocol with China, which expanded the authorised product list to include high-demand items like pork stomachs. 3. Domestic Demand & Consumption Patterns Domestic pork consumption in Spain rose (~5.4% YoY to November 2024) indicating solid local demand. AHDB Consumption Outside the Home (restaurants, catering) is growing. Fresh pork formats and traditional dishes are especially in demand. Euromeat News 4. Price Movements & Volatility Spanish pig prices dipped in mid/late 2024 and early 2025, partly due to supply increases in the EU, weaker consumption, and outbreaks (e.g. FMD in Germany affecting trade flows). Prices hit a low (~€1.67/kg) in January 2025 before recovering to ~€1.91/kg by early June. Still, these prices are below comparable weeks in 2024. 5. Export Market Risks / Trade Barriers China has imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties (up to ~62.4%) on EU pork imports, targeting especially offal products like pig ears, feet, stomachs etc. This poses risk for Spain since many exports are of such products. However, the recent Spanish-China export protocol (including stomachs) helps mitigate some risk, though tariff barriers remain. Risks & Challenges Breeding Herd Decline: Spain has seen reductions in breeding pig numbers. Over time this could reduce productive capacity unless replaced or improved. Trade Barriers & Tariffs: Anti-dumping duties and export rules (especially related to offal products) from important markets like China can reduce export volume or reduce margins. Animal Disease Outbreaks: Foot-and-Mouth Disease or other livestock diseases in trading countries affect supply chains, trade restrictions, and price fluctuations. Rising Input Costs & Regulations: Environmental regulations, feed cost inflation, labour, energy, and compliance costs are always concerns and may pressurize producers’ margins. Outlook Short to Medium Term (2025-2026): Spain is likely to maintain strong export performance, especially if trade access (China, Southeast Asia etc.) remains favourable and Spain effectively uses authorised product protocols. Domestic demand, especially outside home and fresh meat formats, should continue to grow. Prices may remain volatile, but tightening supply (if breeding herd continues to decline) could support upward pressure. Long Term (2027-2035): EU projections suggest a modest decline in overall pigmeat production over the next decade (around -0.5% annually) due to environmental, regulatory, and consumer demand changes. Per capita consumption in EU is also predicted to slightly decline over time as consumer preferences shift (health, sustainability, plant-based alternatives). Strategic Recommendations Diversify Export Products: Given trade risk for offal, producers should explore diversifying to products less affected by tariffs or with stable demand in non-traditional markets. Value-add & Branding: Emphasise quality, safety, traceability, perhaps animal welfare or “premium” cuts, to differentiate and maintain margins. Monitor Regulations & Animal Health: Stay ahead on compliance, biosafety, disease prevention. Early action can avoid costly disruptions. Supply Chain Efficiency: Reduce waste, optimize feed and production costs, improve logistics—efficiency gains will help under margin pressure and regulation.