October Outlook: Fruit and Veg

- The United States (US) fresh apple production is expected to increase by 1.5% in 2023/24, with the Gala apple volume leading the market. However, Michigan and New York face declines due to adverse weather. India's apple imports are expected to rise after a 20% retaliatory duty removal on US apples. China's rising prices are due to quality disparities and reduced cold storage supply, while Poland's drought and high temperatures impact stocks of fresh apples. Overall, the global apple market is characterized by varying factors impacting production and prices in different regions. - Banana exports from Ecuador increased by 6.99% YoY in the first seven months of 2023, driven by production dynamics, lower shipping charges, and rising volumes of organic bananas to the US. The EU, Ecuador's top importer, saw a YoY increase, while a free trade deal is expected to boost sales in China. The US market faces lower prices due to increased production affected by El Niño, while Europe is stabilizing prices. - For peppers, the US, China, and Türkiye showed a stable price trend in September, expected to continue in October. On the other hand, Spain’s vegetable production was hindered by adverse weather and pest damages, which upped wholesale prices of fresh bell peppers. - During the W1 of Sep-23 in Guangzhou, China, Thai durian contended with fierce competition from Vietnam. In Thailand, the wholesale price of fresh durian experienced a significant monthly drop due to an abundant domestic supply. However, Tridge's October forecast for fresh durian prices in Thailand is bullish, anticipating solid demand from the Chinese market during upcoming autumn festivities. - Mexican Hass avocado prices fluctuated in September, initially at USD 2.53/kg, briefly rising due to higher demand, and then falling to USD 2.35/kg as a larger harvest arrived in August. Record exports to the US are anticipated for 2023. South Africa's avocado prices remained stable in September, gradually recovering from an early-season oversupply. Access to the Chinese market is expected to boost prices next season, with Tridge predicting a price increase in South Africa in October as the season ends and volumes decrease. - In the US import market, Mexican Tommy Atkins mango prices have remained stable at USD 1.69/kg since August, thanks to a surplus of high-quality fruit from Mexico. However, the impending end of the Mexican mango season in October may lead to price increases. In India, mango prices dipped to USD 0.61/kg in September following earlier increases due to weather-related crop damage. Prices may see a slight uptick in October, driven by continued strong demand. In Spain, mango prices held steady in September, recovering from a 34% drop in August, mainly due to reduced local production caused by droughts. Prices could rise again in October with increased imports and lower local supply. - In India, the wholesale price of red onions has surged by 50% MoM, prompting the government to impose a 40% export duty to stabilize the market. Peruvian red onions, driven by international demand and supply shortages, reached a historic high of USD 1.78/kg before slightly stabilizing. After a peak in May, South African yellow onion prices have gradually declined, dropping by 54% in the monthly average. Conversely, Indonesian onion prices have decreased due to increased imports despite remaining lower than the previous year's severe shortage.