November Outlook: Nuts

- The peanut harvest has started in the Northern Hemisphere, delayed by late rains in many production areas. In India, stable peanut prices were observed, with adverse weather affecting early-planted peanuts but expectations of higher yields from late-planted crops. Brazil experienced a 10% price increase driven by export demand, particularly from Russia, but faces potential price stabilization or decrease as Northern Hemisphere harvests begin. China saw a 16% price surge due to heavy rains during harvest and increased holiday demand, although the spike may be temporary due to expected post-holiday market dynamics and the ongoing harvest. - The ongoing almond harvest in the Northern Hemisphere has been associated with low yields and quality concerns. In the United States (US), the harvest continues to progress two weeks later than usual, which has led to a higher instance of insect damage and fungal infections. However, crop losses have already been factored into prices, which are expected to move sideways unless there is a noticeable uptick in export demand. The Spanish crop, which will be much lower than pre-harvest estimates, is preventing prices from decreasing during the harvest, as is the normal seasonality of prices. - Walnut prices have remained relatively stable despite the ongoing harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. The 2023 European crop is forecasted to be smaller than 2022’s, with increased imports expected. Gradually, global demand aligns with supply, signaling a mostly positive outlook for prices. The US is expecting an excellent crop in terms of quality. However, with a recovery in demand, especially from Europe, prices have maintained their levels. - The hazelnut harvest is entering the final stages in the Northern Hemisphere. European importers remain on the sidelines as they evaluate the crop in Europe as well as the globe’s leading producer, Türkiye. The recent surge in Turkish hazelnut prices has deterred major importers from entering the market. Prices in Turkey have started to trend lower towards the end of Oct-23, with a more accurate estimate of the crop size projected to reach 650,000 mt. Over the short term, prices are expected to continue decreasing as the previous bullish run, which began in Aug-23, may have been overdone.