February 2025 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

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Trade4go

Feb 18th, 2025

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,945.46 per 40-foot container in Jan-25, marking a 7.3% rise from Dec-24 and a significant 35.63% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This rise was driven by general rate increases (GRIs), pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 demand, and global trade tensions. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 124.29 points in Jan-25, marking a 3.91% month-on-month (MoM) increase, driven by higher prices for urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride. - Coffee: Brazilian Arabica and Robusta prices are forecast to increase due to limited supply. Low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices in Feb-25. Vietnamese coffee prices are predicted to increase due to global supply remaining heavily dependent on Vietnam. - Sugar: Improved crop prospects are expected to keep prices stable in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are expected to remain low as buyers exert downward pressure on the spot market. - Tea: Indian tea prices are forecast to remain bearish in Feb-25 due to improved supply. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will remain strong due to its focus on exports, while Sri Lankan prices are expected to trade down due to increased production. - Cocoa: Tridge forecasts that cocoa prices will remain elevated in Feb-25. This bullish trend will likely persist as supply challenges in West Africa persist.