December 2023 Outlook Report: Nuts

Key Indicators: In Nov-23, global freight prices increased by 10% month-on-month (MoM), marking the first rise in three months, while year-on-year (YoY) prices remained significantly lower by 62%, with the slowest decline pace since Sep-22. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Food Price Index, or the FFPI, continued the bearish trend in Oct-23, down 0.5% MoM and 11% YoY. However, certain FFPI products showed slight increases in Nov-23, signaling a potential shift in the overall trend. The World Bank's fertilizer index reached its highest level since Feb-23, rising 2.7% MoM to 161.7, slightly exceeding seasonal expectations. Peanuts: The peanut harvest is wrapping up in the Northern Hemisphere. Many questions still hang over the size of the Indian Kharif crop, with estimates ranging from as low as 6.9 million metric tons (mmt) to over 8.0 mmt. Prices were under pressure as Chinese demand, especially for peanut oil, has not shown the expected strength after Covid-19 restrictions were lifted. The Brazilian peanut planting season is nearing completion, under dry conditions. Throughout Nov-23, prices in Brazil found support from adverse weather and increasing soybean prices. Almonds: The Northern Hemisphere harvest is concluding, and global production is expected to be approximately 1.5 mmt, similar to 2022/24. Prices are slightly increasing due to the alleviation of harvest pressure. The United States (US) crop may fall short of the estimated 2.6 billion pounds (lbs), and the supply of larger almonds could be comparatively low. In Spain, poor nut fill during the harvest has also reduced the availability of larger almonds. Despite the anticipated stronger consumer demand for almonds, it has not materialized, and the market may continue to cover only short-term commitments until early 2024. Walnuts: With the Northern Hemisphere harvest wrapping up, prices globally moved mostly sideways in Nov-23 with ample supplies. Global walnut production for 2023/24 is projected at 1.14 mmt, similar to the previous season. European production is expected to increase slightly in 2023, keeping prices under downward pressure. The US is expecting an excellent crop in terms of quality, but demand for US walnuts has not shown the resilience anticipated for the 2023/24 crop. Hazelnuts: Hazelnut prices in Europe increased slightly in Nov-23 to realign with recent increases in Türkiye’s hazelnut prices. However, higher prices have led to a standoff between importers and exporters, with hazelnut exports from Türkiye off to a slow start to the 2023/24 marketing year (MY). Buyers in Europe are only covering short-term commitments, as is the case for many other nuts. Low trading volumes are expected to continue for the rest of the year, with an increase in buying anticipated from early 2024.