U.S. Avocado Prices Are Double Europe’s—Not Just Tariffs, But Mexican Dependency

A Tale of Two Markets

Recent wholesale market data reveals a stark contrast between the United States and the Netherlands in avocado pricing.  According to Tridge, a global agrifood market intelligence platform, U.S. domestic wholesale prices for Mexican Hass avocados peaked at $9.33/kg in the Bronx for size 36s earlier this year, while prices under the same conditions were as low as $4.74/kg last year. By contrast, in the Netherlands, Colombian Hass avocados peaked at €4.00/kg (approximately $4.30–$4.50) for larger sizes (16s, 18s), with prices for the same size group ranging between €1.63 and €4.00 over the past year. Although both markets showed similar levels of percentage volatility—ranging from 197% to 290%—the scale of price levels in the U.S. was several times higher.

The disparity points less to differences in product and more to structural contrasts in supply chain design. Europe’s sourcing strategy, led by hubs like the Netherlands, is diversified across multiple origins and supported by integrated cold chain infrastructure. In contrast, the U.S. market remains heavily dependent on a single supplier—Mexico—making it more vulnerable to seasonal dips, trade shocks, and regional supply frictions. As a result, the U.S. wholesale market experiences sharper price surges, especially for premium sizes, underscoring the long-term value of diversification in supply chain resilience.

Unlike the United States, which sources over 90% of its fresh avocados from Mexico, Europe—particularly the Netherlands—maintains a far more diversified import portfolio. In 2023, the Netherlands imported avocados from 66 countries, led by Peru (32%), Colombia (16%), South Africa (10%), Kenya (9%), Chile (8%), and Spain (5%), with Israel and Morocco each contributing 3%, and Tanzania and Belgium at 2% each, by volume. In contrast, the U.S. imported from just eight countries, with Mexico alone accounting for 91% of total volume—a level of concentration unmatched in other major markets, according to Tridge.

In the Netherlands, it’s not just the origin of avocados that’s diversified—but also the varieties and sizes available to consumers. While the U.S. market is largely dominated by the Hass variety, Dutch consumers have access to a broader selection, including Zutano, Hybrid-Fuerte, and Reed, among others. This diversity not only caters to varying consumer preferences but also fosters competition among varieties, which appears to strengthen the bargaining power of Dutch importers.

The Netherlands has developed a multi-origin avocado sourcing system designed to buffer against supply shocks, seasonal gaps, and price fluctuations. This risk-mitigation approach has evolved over time, with the country functioning not only as a consumption market but also as a distribution hub for Europe. Anchored by the Port of Rotterdam, the system leverages exclusive cold chain infrastructure, and staggered sourcing schedules to manage longer transit times effectively. 

The Tariff Shock That Laid Bare U.S. Supply Chain Weakness

Trump’s tariff disruption exposed deeper structural weakness in U.S. supply chains of avocado. While the proximity allows for short transit (2–5 days), this single-source model exposes the U.S. to multiple vulnerabilities. Tariff threats instantly spiked landed costs. If it weren’t for the tariff it would have been seasonal gaps in Mexico's supply (e.g., Apr–Jun, Aug–Sep), and labor disruptions, cartel activity, or weather volatility in Mexico to ripple quickly across the U.S. value chain.

The price gap between the U.S. and Europe reflects a strategic vulnerability. The U.S. market is forced to absorb shocks because they haven’t built flexible, multi-origin sourcing networks. This is the structural cost of Mexican dependency, that the weakest stakeholder in the value chain will hurt the most—avocado middlemen and consumers in the end.

These importers often cannot pass on sudden cost increases and are left absorbing losses. The situation becomes more fragile when these same players are also responsible for re-exporting avocados to Canada, where higher prices reduce demand.

A Smarter Path Forward for U.S. Importers

In short, the U.S. supply chain was built for efficiency, not resilience. That trade-off is now being tested. While full diversification may not be immediately viable, practical improvements are possible. Based on harvest seasons, production volumes, and transit times, here’s a realistic multi-origin sourcing rotation:

While maintaining Mexico as the base supplier, U.S. importers can build a more resilient sourcing strategy by incorporating Colombia(year-round availability, 7–10 days transit) as a gap filler, Peru(March–July harvest, 14–17 days transit) as a seasonal stabilizer, and the Dominican Republic(August–January harvest, 5–7 days transit) for summer and fall support. Chile(Sep–Feb harvest, 18-21 days transit) can serve as a winter-seasonal source, while South Africa(Feb–Oct, 21-25 days transit) provides a valuable emergency hedge. This rotation takes into account each origin’s harvest calendar and transit time, offering a practical framework for diversified supply.

Each of these markets offers overlapping harvest timelines and manageable shipping times, providing immediate relief without a complete overhaul of existing supply structures. "A good fertilized avocado and good level of dry matter supports transit time more than 30 days:  a resilient supply chain isn't a luxury it's a necessity" said Stephan Yu, an avocado trader at Tridge.

Longer-term, however, stability will depend on building infrastructure and diversifying contracts. Investing in cold chain capacity at key East and West Coast ports would allow U.S. importers to handle fruit at different maturity levels and from more distant origins. Meanwhile, piloting volumes from South Africa or Guatemala may open contingency channels for future disruptions—laying the groundwork for a more resilient and flexible import strategy.

As these sourcing strategies evolve, so too must the intelligence tools used to support them. Navigating alternative origin countries and suppliers, price volatility, and transit times requires more than reactive planning—it calls for data-driven decision-making at scale. Emerging AI-powered solutions, like those used by global sourcing platforms such as Tridge, can help importers track real-time market movements, optimize sourcing calendars, and identify supply risks before they materialize.