Brazilian wheat market: Prospects for recovery in 2024

In Brazil, the availability of wheat in Rio Grande do Sul is dwindling rapidly, with 43.5% already allocated for various uses, including export and local industry. As a result, mills are facing a tight supply situation, with grain expected to become even scarcer in June. Domestic market negotiations for January remain stagnant, with prices ranging from R$1,300.00 to R$1,250.00 FOB. Meanwhile, in Santa Catarina, cooperatives are wrapping up the local harvest, but prices are higher than in Rio Grande do Sul. Mills are under pressure due to high bran demand and low milling rates. Wheat prices in Rio Grande do Sul vary from R$1,220.00 to R$1,240.00 plus freight, while Paraná offers up to R$1,400.00. The market anticipates stabilization or a slight decrease in prices in the near future. Paraná's market is currently inactive, but mills plan to restart purchases in January to adjust inventories.

According to data from TF Agroeconômica, 43.5% of the wheat available in Rio Grande do Sul has already been committed for this harvest. This volume includes 1,455,000 tons destined for export and 240,000 tons reserved for seeds or use in local industries, leaving mills with limited supply. Starting in June, grain is expected to become even scarcer in the state. In the domestic market, negotiations for January remain at a standstill. Buyer indications are in the range of R$1,300.00, with delivery in Serra for shipments in the second half of January and February, and payment scheduled for March. Occasionally, deals near mills were closed at R$1,250.00 FOB, with pickup scheduled for February. In Santa Catarina, cooperatives are still receiving the last batches of the local harvest. However, the prices charged are higher than those of Rio Grande do Sul CIF. Mills are facing reduced margins due to high demand for bran, while milling remains low, limiting the ability to meet demand. ...