Weak CBOT corn, soybeans heading toward ominous achievement

Chicago corn and soybean futures have experienced a unusual summer rally this year due to lack of concern over supply scenarios and heavy price pressure. December corn futures and November soybeans have seen significant drops since the start of 2024, and it is unlikely that new-crop corn and soybeans will return to their annual highs. This is the first time since 1975 that November soybeans marked their year-of-expiry high in the year’s first session, and the first time since 2013 that December corn did the same.

Chicago corn and soybean futures almost always undergo some kind of summer rally as U.S. crop potential remains vulnerable to weather fluctuations, but traders this year have displayed little to no concern over supply scenarios. Market momentum has been downward since U.S. planting wrapped up in late May, and large speculators entered July with their most bearish-ever midyear positions. Heavy price pressure in July is not terribly unusual, especially when weather for U.S. crops has been largely nonthreatening. But comparable downturns in the past have come when investors were long, making this year’s action a bit more rare. December corn futures CZ24 have tumbled 19% since the start of 2024 and are down the same degree versus a year ago. November soybeans SX24 are off 14% since the year’s start but are trading 21% lower than on the same date in 2023. Given the lack of a concerning Corn Belt weather forecast and the relatively weak U.S. demand as of late, new-crop corn and soybeans ...