USDA experts minimally changed the world wheat balance, but lowered export estimates for Ukraine and the Russian Federation

The USDA's January supply and demand report showed a slight increase in the global production forecast but a decrease in wheat consumption and export forecasts, resulting in an increase in the estimate of world ending stocks. Despite this, stock quotes remained largely unchanged, with a minor increase in March wheat futures and a decrease in soft winter SRW wheat futures in Chicago. The report also noted that US wheat stocks as of December 1 were higher than the previous year, and more winter wheat had been sown in the US compared to last year. The new world wheat balance for the 2024/25 marketing year shows pressure on prices from increased supply in Australia and Argentina and low demand from major global importers, with further price growth possible only with unfavorable weather conditions for winter wheat crops in Russia and Ukraine.

In the January supply and demand report, USDA experts slightly increased the forecast for world production, reduced the forecasts for wheat consumption and exports, which led to an increase in the estimate of world ending stocks above the level predicted by analysts. Against this background, stock quotes remained without significant changes, despite the growth of corn futures by 3%. According to the report, March wheat futures increased slightly: At the same time, soft winter SRW wheat futures in Chicago fell by 0.5% to $ 195 / t (-2.2%). In addition, prices were influenced by reports on grain stocks and winter sowing areas in the USA. Wheat stocks in the USA as of December 1 amounted to 42.7 million tons, which exceeded the corresponding figure for last year by 4 million tons and slightly exceeded the average trade forecast. Winter wheat for the 2025 harvest in the United States has been sown on 34.115 million acres, which is 725 thousand acres more than last year. Compared to ...