Updated FAO cereal supply and demand forecasts

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has released an updated Cereal Supply and Demand Brief for 2024, predicting a slight decrease in global cereal production to 2,849 million tonnes, despite higher than expected yields in Australia and Kazakhstan. The 2025 production forecasts show a slight increase in rice production and stable wheat production. The world cereal use is expected to rise by 0.9% in 2024/25, driven by a record high in rice use. However, world cereal stocks are forecast to decline by 1.5% by the end of 2025 due to a significant drawdown in coarse cereal stocks. The FAO has also lowered its forecast for world cereal trade in 2024/25 by 6.7% due to lower expected purchases by China. Additionally, the FAO-supported Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) has called for dialogue on food trade to ensure global food security.

On Friday, FAO also released a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief with revised forecasts for 2024 and a fresh look at the prospects for crop production and harvests in 2025. The estimate for world cereal production in 2024 is 2,849 million tonnes, down 0.3 percent year-on-year but higher than previous estimates due to higher-than-expected wheat yields in Australia and Kazakhstan. FAO’s forecast for world rice production in 2024/25 is little changed at 543.3 million tonnes, up 1.6 percent year-on-year, mainly due to expanded plantings. FAO’s forecast for world wheat production in 2025 is unchanged from last month at 795 million tonnes. tonnes, which is at the revised estimate for 2024. Wheat production in the European Union is expected to increase by 12% after a weather-related decline in 2024. It is also likely to increase in Argentina, Egypt and India, while decreasing in Australia, the United States and parts of the Middle East Asia. Maize harvests in the southern hemisphere ...