Two harvests with a production of 2 million tons are needed to meet the global cocoa deficit

The global cocoa market is experiencing significant volatility due to a deficit of over 400,000 tons, with prices in New York reaching a record high of US$12,000 in April. This deficit is largely due to a drop in production from African trees, which make up 70% of the world's cocoa supply, leading to a 30% to 35% decrease in production. The dependence on African cocoa and a decrease in almond receipts in Brazil are exacerbating the situation. To offset the lack of cocoa, industries are using alternative products like palm oil. The situation is further complicated by the need for sustainable management practices and diseases affecting cocoa productivity in both Africa and Brazil.

Currently, the global cocoa deficit is over 400,000 tons, causing significant volatility in the international market and in Brazil. Africa, the main global supplier of the commodity, is one of the factors responsible for this worrying scenario and has the international market on alert due to a possible shortage. The dependence on African cocoa has become evident in recent harvests, as the continent faces historical social problems and does not have sustainable management practices sufficient to maintain the health of its crops. The main cause of the problem is African trees, which are considered old and more susceptible to diseases. This fragility has resulted in a 30% to 35% drop in production that represents 70% to 75% of the world's entire cocoa supply. As a result, prices in New York have gone from an average of around US$2,000 to over US$7,000, reaching a record high of US$12,000 in April of this year. “The deficit in certified stocks on the ICE, the exchange that trades ...