Trade war, exchange rate and climate: the factors that moved soybeans and corn

The article highlights the economic implications of the escalating trade war between the United States and China on the soybean and corn markets in Brazil and globally. The article points out that the trade dispute has led to unjustifiable American agricultural exports to China, thereby bolstering Brazilian soybeans' competitiveness and increasing export premiums. However, logistical issues and high freight rates continue to pose challenges to Brazil's national harvest. Furthermore, the article discusses the US Department of Agriculture's adjustments in planting areas to mitigate the effects of Chinese tariffs, which could influence future commodity prices in Chicago and intensify international competition. Additionally, the article notes the positive impact of a stronger commercial dollar on the competitiveness of Brazilian agricultural exports but the pressure it puts on production costs.

The week was marked by different economic events that impacted the soybean and corn markets in Brazil and abroad. According to the Grão Direto platform, the intensification of the trade war between the United States and China, combined with robust economic data in the US and movements in the American planting area, brought volatility to prices and influenced strategic decisions by producers and traders. The main highlight of the last week was the worsening of the trade dispute between the United States and China. On Wednesday (2), US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on several countries. In response, China announced on Friday (4) a 34% increase in tariffs on American agricultural products, including soybeans, which makes US exports to the Asian country unfeasible. The measure directly benefits Brazilian soybeans, which had already been benefiting since the beginning of the trade conflict in 2018. As a result, export premiums rose at Brazilian ports, while soybean ...