Towards a drop of at least 15% in French soft wheat exports over 2024/25

France's agricultural agency, FranceAgriMer, has forecast a decrease in the export of soft wheat and barley for the 2024/25 marketing year. Soft wheat production is expected to drop to 29.7 million tons from 35.1 million tons in 2023, with a decrease in exports to both EU and third countries. Barley production is estimated to be 11.3 million tons, with a slight increase in domestic uses and a significant decrease in grain shipments. Durum wheat production, imports, and domestic uses are expected to remain stable, but grain exports are predicted to decrease. These forecasts are subject to change based on Agreste's updated data and the market context.

FranceAgriMer has just delivered its first forecast report for straw cereals for the 2024/25 marketing year, based on estimates from the ministry's statistical service (Agreste). What we mainly remember is that exports of soft wheat and barley are expected to decline sharply. Let's start with soft wheat. For Agreste, 2024 production would reach around 29.7 Mt compared to 35.1 Mt in 2023. “We assumed an increase in the volume of imports to meet the quantity desired by operators, at 200,000 t compared to 125,000 t over the past campaign,” explains Maria Gras, from the Grains and Sugar unit of FranceAgriMer. Domestic uses would not vary much compared to 2023/24, at 13.9 Mt. Note: an increase in the starch/glutennery item (+ 100,000 t) and a drop in uses for the manufacture of livestock feed ( - 150,000 t), “knowing that there would be uncertainty regarding downgrades to feed wheat and possible competition with corn”. It is therefore on the side of the export outlet that the situation ...