Sugar: 2024/25 harvest expected to have deficit of 4.1 million tons

Itaú BBA has forecasted a sugar deficit of 4.1 million tons for the 2024/25 harvest in Brazil due to weather conditions and potential regrowth failures from last year's fires. However, a surplus of 4.4 million tons is expected for the following harvest. The bank maintains its forecast for 601 million tons of sugarcane to be harvested in the 2025/26 season but cautions that this could change based on March and April rainfall. Additionally, if international sugar prices fall, mills in the Center-South of Brazil may decrease sugar production in favor of ethanol, impacting the sugar production forecast.

In a report, Itaú BBA predicted a deficit of 4.1 million tons of sugar in the 2024/25 harvest. However, initial estimates for the 2025/26 harvest suggest a surplus of 4.4 million tons. In Brazil, weather conditions have generated uncertainty: while rainfall in the last months of 2024 was well above the historical average, rainfall in early 2025 was below. “There is uncertainty about the area available for harvesting, as mills are still renovating areas where there are failures in regrowth (due to last year's fires),” the analysts said. In light of this, Itaú BBA maintained its estimate of 601 million tons of sugarcane harvested in the 2025/26 harvest in the Center-South of Brazil, but warned that this figure could be reduced, depending on the rainfall in March and April. Furthermore, the report highlights that, if sugar prices on the international market fall below current levels, “mills in ...