Australia: Rural Bank outlook looks to the second half of 2024

Rural Bank's six-month outlook for Australian graingrowers predicts an increase in winter crops supply and demand, with prices expected to be affected by the upcoming northern hemisphere harvest and tightening global stocks. Winter planting is expected to conclude under varied conditions, with winter crop production set to rise by 9% to 51.3 million tonnes in 2024/25, assuming timely rainfall. The report also anticipates a 17% rise in Australian winter pulse plantings in 2024/25, driven by increased chickpea and lentil plantings due to high prices fueled by the suspension of Indian tariffs and strong global demand. However, the rise in container freight rates could impact local prices for the rest of the season and into new crops.

The six month outlook for Australian graingrowers released by Rural Bank predicts an increase in supply and demand for winter crops and prices to be impacted by upcoming northern hemisphere harvest and global stocks tightening. The outlook prediction is that winter planting will conclude under varied conditions, with continued in-crop rainfall essential, despite long range neutral forecasts. The report states that Australian winter crop production will increase nine per cent to 51.3 million tonnes in 2024/25, though timely rainfall remains paramount, particularly in dry regions. "Australia is on track to achieve strong canola exports of 5.8 to 6.0 million tonnes for the current 2023/24 marketing season," the report said. "However, similar to wheat and barley, ending stocks are expected to be tighter compared to recent seasons. "For Western Australia everything will need to go to plan during the growing season along with a very kind finish required to achieve an average crop. ...