Rapeseed meal shortage worsens on global markets

Global trade tensions are expected to cause a shortage of rapeseed meal from April to June 2025, with total exports predicted to decline by 16% to 2.1 million tonnes, the lowest quarterly volume since July-September 2022. The European market is particularly affected, with an increase in rapeseed meal prices due to seasonally low processing volumes and uncertainty in Canadian canola exports to China and the US, as well as Russian and Belarusian rapeseed meal facing a 50% duty in the EU. This has led to changes in demand in the feed industry, with Argentine soybean meal trading at $377/t. Canadian farmers are planting less canola and more wheat, leading to a second consecutive annual decline in canola planting.

Escalating global trade tensions could exacerbate the shortage of rapeseed meal on the world market in April-June 2025, as it is unclear under what conditions Canadian processors will be able to export canola meal to China and the US in the coming months, while Russian and Belarusian rapeseed meal is still subject to a 50% duty in the EU. This is what analysts at Oil World from Germany are drawing attention to. Total global rapeseed meal exports are expected to decline to 2.1 million tonnes in April-June 2025, down 16% or 0.4 million tonnes year-on-year and the lowest quarterly volume since July-September 2022. The European market is particularly affected by seasonally low rapeseed processing volumes – around 3 million tonnes in Q1 2025 (3.3 million tonnes in January-March 2025; 3.4 million tonnes in the corresponding period a year earlier). This situation has led to an increase in rapeseed meal prices in the EU. Overall, rapeseed meal prices in the EU are 5% above the April ...