RaboResearch: Aquaculture outlook optimistic by 2025

The aquaculture industry is projected to recover in 2025 following a challenging 2024, driven by lower feed prices and increased demand. The industry, however, faces potential setbacks due to possible tariffs and trade restrictions. Among the species, pangasius and tilapia are expected to grow the most, with pangasius seeing a 7% increase and tilapia a 5% increase. Atlantic salmon, sea bass, and sea bream are anticipated to grow by 3% to 4%, while shrimp production is expected to barely grow, by 2%. Despite these positive trends, there are concerns about market and economic conditions in 2025, including market prices, aquafeed costs, and market access.

After a difficult 2024 with weak demand in key markets, production growth for key aquaculture species is expected to improve in 2025. Lower feed prices and improved demand should be a boon for producers in 2025, but there is uncertainty, and increased tariffs and trade restrictions could hamper the development of an aquaculture industry that is highly dependent on exports. Freshwater species pangasius and tilapia are expected to see the most significant growth, up 7% and 5% year-on-year, respectively. Supplies of Atlantic salmon, sea bass and sea bream, which have the largest market share in Europe, are expected to grow by 3% in 2025- 4%. Shrimp prices remain relatively low and production is expected to grow by only 2%, which is an increase from 1% in 2024 but still low relative to historical levels. The annual aquaculture (including finfish and shrimp) production survey ...