Overview of the global dairy market

New Zealand's dairy season has started strong, with Westpac NZ raising its gate milk price forecast from NZ$8.70 to NZ$9.00 per kg milk solids due to improving market conditions. However, global dairy supply remains a concern, especially with the bluetongue virus outbreak in Europe. In contrast, Chinese production has recovered, and the US dairy industry is starting to rebound from the bird flu outbreak. Meanwhile, the export of live dairy heifers to China, a lucrative market for Australian dairy farmers, has slowed due to an oversupply of raw milk in China, leading to lower local milk prices and reduced farm profitability. The UK's milk production for the 2024/2025 season is forecast to decrease slightly, reaching 12.28 billion litres, and the dairy herd size is expected to continue shrinking slightly as well.

To continue reading the article, log in to your account or register with MilkPoint. Get access to exclusive content! New Zealand has started the dairy season with a big boost, which is likely to contribute a substantial amount of supply to the market, according to Westpac NZ. This was initially offset by weaker supply from the northern hemisphere. However, Chinese production picked up again in August and the US dairy industry is starting to recover from the bird flu outbreak. The main factor still limiting global supply is the ongoing outbreak of bluetongue virus in Europe. Westpac NZ has updated its gate milk price forecast for the season, raising it from NZ$8.70 (US$5.3) per kg milk solids [equivalent to NZ$0.72 (US$0.45) per kg milk] to NZ$9.00 (US$5.49) per kg milk solids [equivalent to NZ$0.75 (US$0.46) per kg milk]. This adjustment reflects improving market conditions, as indicated by stronger dairy auction prices. Global dairy prices have shown resilience, with whole and ...