Iraq suffers a wheat-surplus headache

Iraq is experiencing a wheat surplus in 2024-25 due to record planting and favorable rainfall, resulting in a harvest of 6.3 million tonnes, up from 5.2 million tonnes the previous year. This surplus, alongside a recovery in barley production, comes despite challenges like climate change and budget pressures. The government, which heavily subsidizes wheat production and controls most flour mills, faces a surplus of 1.3 million tonnes after meeting domestic demand. To manage this, Iraq is selling wheat to local millers at higher prices and reducing reliance on imports from countries like Turkiye and the UAE, with a shift towards Russian imports. The International Grains Council and USDA predict reduced wheat and flour imports for Iraq in the future.

Historically a major wheat importer, Iraq is facing an unexpected surplus in 2024-25 after growers planted a record area on the back of government subsidies aimed at improving self-sufficiency, and excellent growing-season rainfall led to a bumper harvest. With bread and flour products a dietary staple, wheat is an extremely important crop in Iraq, accounting for around 70 percent of total cereal production. Output from this year’s harvest is estimated at a record 6.3 million tonnes (Mt) off a planted area of around 2.7M hectares for an average yield of 2.33t/ha. This compares to the 2023-24 crop of 5.2Mt and the five-year average of 4.3Mt. After widespread crop failure in the country’s north decimated 2023-24 barley output to just 200,000t, production recovered dramatically this season to 1.4Mt, significantly higher than the five-year average of 850,000t. Locally produced barley is primarily used as feed for livestock and intensive poultry production. About 13pc of Iraq’s total ...