Global wheat market: U.S. wheat rises to a new one-year high, supported by geopolitical conflicts and weather concerns.

Core message: According to foreign media on March 1, as of the week ending February 27, 2026, the global wheat market has risen, with CBOT soft red winter wheat futures reaching a one-year high, and KCBT hard red winter wheat nearing a six-month high due to concerns over supply caused by geopolitical tensions and weather factors. However, global wheat inventories remain at their highest level in five years, and inventories in all major exporting countries have significantly increased year-over-year, curbing the upward momentum of the wheat market.

On Friday (February 27), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May soft red winter wheat futures closed at $5.915 per bushel, up 1.94% from a week earlier. Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) May hard red winter wheat futures closed at $5.805 per bushel, down 0.81%. Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) March hard red spring wheat futures closed at $6.1275 per bushel, up 2.13%. Euronext May wheat prices were 201.50 euros per ton, up 1.3%. Argentine high-river wheat prices were $211 per ton, up 2.9%. On Friday, the ICE US Dollar Index closed at 97.565 points, down 0.17% from a week earlier. The core driving factor of this week’s market is undoubtedly the increasingly tense geopolitical situation. The ongoing US-Iran standoff has not made any breakthrough progress in negotiations, and the US ambassador to Israel advising citizens to leave "swiftly" has further heightened market anxiety. Meanwhile, crude oil prices reached a new high in over half a year, precious metals increased, and the ...