French soft wheat crop forecast to shrink 15% after soggy season

France is projected to see a 15% decrease in its main wheat crop, reaching its lowest level since 2020 with an estimated production of 29.65 million metric tons. This is due to months of heavy rain impacting planting and yield potential. The country's farm ministry also expects a decrease in total barley production by 8%, with a notable 17% drop in winter barley production. Rapeseed production is estimated to decrease by 8%, and the area for grain maize has been increased by 22%. Sugar beet production is also expected to rise by 8%.

France’s main wheat crop is expected to fall by 15% this year to its lowest level since 2020 after months of heavy rain reduced planting and hurt yield potential in the EU’s top exporter of the cereal, the country’s farm ministry said on Tuesday. In a first projection, the ministry put soft wheat production at 29.65 million metric tons, which would be only the third time in 20 years that output has been below 30 million tons, after 2020 and 2016. The forecast was based on an expected yield of 6.99 tons per hectare (t/ha), against 7.38 t/ha last year, and an estimated harvested area of 4.24 million hectares, compared with 4.75 million in 2023. The estimated 2024 area had also been revised down from 4.40 million hectares in June. “Excess moisture and a lack of sunshine have weighed on yield potential,” the ministry said in its crop report. Analysts and traders have been anticipating a soft wheat crop of around 29-30 million tons. However, worse than expected indications from ...