FAS USDA expects Canadian canola production to increase despite shrinking acreage

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has forecast a slight increase in Canadian oilseed production in 2025/26, reaching 25.57 million tonnes, driven by higher canola production despite a reduction in planted area. Canola production is expected to rise to 18.46 million tonnes, while soybean and sunflower seed production will also see slight increases. The U.S. is predicted to continue as the largest buyer of Canadian canola oil, supporting overall growth in oilseed production. However, Canadian canola seed exports are projected to decline due to lower domestic supplies and increased crushing capacity, with China remaining the largest buyer. Soybean exports are also expected to decrease due to a decline in planted area.

According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Canadian oilseed production, including soybeans and sunflower seed, is forecast to reach 25.57 million tonnes in 2025/26, up slightly from the previous year. FAS forecasts canola production in 2025/26 to be 18.46 million tonnes, up from the 17.84 million tonnes expected this season; soybeans to be 7.0 million tonnes, up from 7.57 million tonnes; and sunflowerseed to be 53,000 tonnes, up slightly from the 51,000 tonnes expected this season. Despite a projected reduction in planted area compared to the previous year, Canadian canola is the main driver of overall oilseed production growth, supported by improved soil moisture conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta and expected yields higher than in 2024-25. Total oilseed production is projected to increase by about 16,000 tonnes in 2025-26 compared to the previous year to reach 5.3 million tonnes, with canola oil accounting for 4.94 million tonnes, of which 3.9 million ...