EC optimistic forecast for EU grain harvest in 2025/26

The Paris stock exchange experienced a drop in milling wheat prices to the lowest level for the 2024/25 marketing year (July - June) since May 2024, due to optimistic forecasts of a 13% increase in the new grain harvest in the European Union. This forecast, supported by multiple organizations, has led to expectations of reduced wheat imports and increased exports for the EU. The European Commission also anticipates a 9.6% increase in EU maize production, resulting in a decrease in maize imports for the 2025/26 season.

On March 28, shortly after the opening of the Paris stock exchange (Euronext), the price of milling wheat there collapsed to the lowest values for the 2024/25 marketing year (July - June) - EUR 215/t, which is the lowest level since May 2024. The sharp decrease (10-12 euros in seven working days) provoked the interest of buyers and at the end of the day, on Friday, the price of May futures recovered to EUR 218.75/t. The sharp decrease in wheat prices on the European market at the end of March was influenced by optimistic forecasts for the size of the new grain harvest in the European Union. The European Commission (EC) forecast on March 27 that EU wheat production next season will increase by 13 percent compared to 2024/25, when EU soft wheat production collapsed to a 12-year low of 111.8 million tonnes. In its first forecast, the Commission expects production to increase by 14.7 million tonnes to 126.5 million tonnes. Traders said the EC's optimistic forecast was preceded by ...